The Braves walk into this three-game set with the Phillies still holding the kind of lead that keeps getting described in parentheses. After splitting four in Philadelphia last weekend, Atlanta’s four-game cushion survived the trip intact, the tiebreaker is already secured, and the math keeps bending in the Braves’ favor: even a sweep would still leave them with a one-game edge, while taking one game would stretch it back to three.
That matters, but only so much. The current playoff format blurs the line between the three and four seeds anyway, since both would host a three-game series at home. The opponent changes, sure - maybe the Diamondbacks or Padres instead of the Cubs - but in a short series, the gap in expected outcome is small enough that the Braves collapsing out of the division would be more irritating than devastating.
What should worry Atlanta more than the standings is the way both teams are playing right now. The Braves and Phillies are each 4-5 in September, but Atlanta’s offense has been especially rough.
Over these nine games, the Braves have had the league’s worst offensive and position-player performance by both inputs and outputs. The Phillies haven’t exactly been rolling, either; they’re bottom ten in both inputs and outputs, and fourth-worst once defense is folded into the value picture.
Pitching is where Philadelphia has had the edge. The Phillies rank sixth in fWAR this month, while the Braves sit 23rd.
By xFIP-, the Phillies are fourth and the Braves 16th. Even so, the broader theme hasn’t changed much: Atlanta keeps winning games in ways that don’t always match the underlying production, and until that stops, the division race is still theirs to lose.
There is at least some reason for confidence in how this series lines up on the mound. The Braves have Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle set for the matchup, while the Phillies used Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler in their previous series. Atlanta will still have to deal with Jesus Luzardo, who dominated on Monday, and the Braves will need a very different plan against him than anything they’ve tried since he arrived in a Phillies uniform.
The bigger hope is more basic than the rotation chess match. Atlanta needs its offense to turn a corner in a way that lasts, not just one that sneaks out a win.
But that has been a hard thing to find over the last three months, when the Braves have looked lost trying to settle on any real offensive identity. Their latest victory came through infield bleeders and while they were out-homering the other side, which is not exactly the recipe anyone wants to bank on for long.
In Other News...
Braves Suddenly Have An Outfield Problem They Didnt Plan For
Lane Thomas was already fighting for his place in Atlantas outfield mix, and now the Braves have to navigate life without him for at least a stretch after placing him on the injured list with an intercostal injury. Since arriving, Thomas has struggled to get much going at the plate, batting .171/.261/.317 in 21 games, and the injury only adds to the uncertainty around how often he would have played even if he had stayed healthy.
For a club that has leaned on depth to get through the season, losing another outfield option is more than a small inconvenience. It tightens the margin on the bench and could force the Braves to shuffle the roster to cover innings and at-bats in the outfield, especially while they try to sort out who can handle regular work and who might simply be insurance. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Just Took Another Hit To Their Pitching Depth
The Braves saw another bit of pitching depth slip away when the Giants claimed right-hander Duncan Davitt off waivers and sent him to Triple-A Sacramento. San Francisco cleared room on its 40-man roster by designating Spencer Bivens for assignment, a reminder of how quickly these fringe arm transactions can ripple through a bullpen picture this time of year.
Atlantas interest, of course, is less about the Giants paperwork than its own October posture. The club placed Bryce Elder on the injured list while activating Reynaldo Lpez, a move that keeps the big-league staff aligned for the postseason but also underscores how thin the cushion can be when injuries and roster churn hit at the same time. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Add Catching Depth As Their October Plan Gets More Interesting
The Braves added another layer to their catching picture on September 1, signing Eric Haase to a minor league contract and sending him to their Florida complex. It is the kind of low-risk move that can matter in September, especially for a team always trying to keep its roster flexible as the calendar turns toward October. Atlanta already views Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy as its catching duo, but the addition of Haase gives the club another experienced name to keep in the mix.
Haase has been around the block this season, having played for three organizations, including the Giants and White Sox. His appeal has always been obvious enough: real power from a catcher, even if the strikeouts have come with it. If the Braves decide they want him available for the postseason, he is eligible as long as the paperwork is filed by the league deadline, leaving at least one more roster decision hanging as the October picture comes into focus. [Read more 🡒]