The Braves head into the finale with two separate problems hanging over them: a stretch of brutal batted-ball luck, and another matchup with Martin Perez that does not exactly inspire confidence.
Atlanta has been living in the strange space between strong results and mediocre offense, and the first two games of this series have only made that gap look more ridiculous. In Game One, the Braves actually out-xwOBAed the Rays, .334 to .326, but came away with a .156 wOBA while Tampa Bay posted a .426 wOBA.
That was Atlanta’s biggest xwOBA underperformance of the season. The Rays, for their part, outperformed their xwOBA by .100 in that game, though even that didn’t crack their top ten overperformances of the year.
Game Two wasn’t much kinder. The Braves turned in a .336 xwOBA and somehow only a .197 wOBA.
Tampa Bay again won the expected-metrics battle, .347 to .339, but the bigger story was the actual production gap, not the slight edge in process. If this is the universe’s way of balancing out a Braves team that’s been leading the division while sliding toward the bottom third in position player production, the rest of the season is going to be miserable.
That’s the fear, anyway, even if it probably won’t play out that way.
Then there’s Perez, who is set to take the ball again. He’s up to 124 1/3 innings this season and has produced 1.2 fWAR with a 78/104/104 line in ERA-, FIP and xFIP-.
He’s been solid enough, and the defense behind him has helped keep runs off the board. But that also makes him the kind of starter who can get nicked to death by bloops and bleeders, especially in a series that has already tilted so hard toward weird outcomes.
Perez is coming off what was basically his roughest outing of the year. The explanation floating around has been that extra rest threw off his command, but the numbers say this was more in line with one of the many possible Perez outcomes: it was the eighth time in 23 starts that he walked more batters than he struck out. That start also came with his third-lowest grounder rate of the season, which is how he wound up getting hit hard by the Phillies and leaving after 3 2/3 innings.
Tampa Bay will counter with Nick Martinez, and his season has been one of the stranger lines in the league. He has 2.6 fWAR across 160 innings, but the run prevention has come with a 73/95/108 line.
It’s easy to look at that and assume the Rays unlocked something new from the 35-year-old journeyman, but his 108 xFIP- is close to his career 111 xFIP-. In other words, the foundation is pretty familiar: a low HR/FB rate and some good fortune when the ball stays in play.
That luck has started to shift a bit. Since the All-Star Break, Martinez is at 90/97/105, compared with 63/93/110 before the break. Whether that trend holds against Atlanta is another matter entirely.
The Braves have seen Martinez plenty over the years, and the results have swung both ways. He dominated them in his last two outings, but Atlanta handled him well in the two before that.
His work with Tampa Bay is its own separate version of the pitcher, though, and the most recent time he faced the Braves was as a Red in 2024. At this point, the better bet may be on whatever the baseball gods have lined up for Atlanta rather than any neat conclusion drawn from the history between the Braves and Martinez.
In Other News...
Braves Suddenly Have An Outfield Problem They Didnt Plan For
Lane Thomas was already fighting for his place in Atlantas outfield mix, and now the Braves have to navigate life without him for at least a stretch after placing him on the injured list with an intercostal injury. Since arriving, Thomas has struggled to get much going at the plate, batting .171/.261/.317 in 21 games, and the injury only adds to the uncertainty around how often he would have played even if he had stayed healthy.
For a club that has leaned on depth to get through the season, losing another outfield option is more than a small inconvenience. It tightens the margin on the bench and could force the Braves to shuffle the roster to cover innings and at-bats in the outfield, especially while they try to sort out who can handle regular work and who might simply be insurance. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Just Took Another Hit To Their Pitching Depth
The Braves saw another bit of pitching depth slip away when the Giants claimed right-hander Duncan Davitt off waivers and sent him to Triple-A Sacramento. San Francisco cleared room on its 40-man roster by designating Spencer Bivens for assignment, a reminder of how quickly these fringe arm transactions can ripple through a bullpen picture this time of year.
Atlantas interest, of course, is less about the Giants paperwork than its own October posture. The club placed Bryce Elder on the injured list while activating Reynaldo Lpez, a move that keeps the big-league staff aligned for the postseason but also underscores how thin the cushion can be when injuries and roster churn hit at the same time. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Add Catching Depth As Their October Plan Gets More Interesting
The Braves added another layer to their catching picture on September 1, signing Eric Haase to a minor league contract and sending him to their Florida complex. It is the kind of low-risk move that can matter in September, especially for a team always trying to keep its roster flexible as the calendar turns toward October. Atlanta already views Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy as its catching duo, but the addition of Haase gives the club another experienced name to keep in the mix.
Haase has been around the block this season, having played for three organizations, including the Giants and White Sox. His appeal has always been obvious enough: real power from a catcher, even if the strikeouts have come with it. If the Braves decide they want him available for the postseason, he is eligible as long as the paperwork is filed by the league deadline, leaving at least one more roster decision hanging as the October picture comes into focus. [Read more 🡒]