The Braves may have found better numbers from Bryce Elder lately, but the shape of those outings tells a different story.
Atlanta’s deadline approach took plenty of heat, and for good reason. The club added Lane Thomas, a few fringe arms, and Tyler Mahle, but the rotation still looked short on real help. So when Elder blanked the Marlins on Wednesday, it was easy for some to treat that start like evidence the Braves had been right to trust the pitchers already in house.
The recent results do look better on paper. Over his last five starts, including that Miami outing, Elder has put up a 2.57 ERA across 28 innings and worked at least five frames in four of those five turns. Atlanta has gone 4-1 in that stretch, which is exactly the kind of run that can make a shaky rotation picture look a lot cleaner.
But the numbers underneath the surface are a lot less comforting.
Elder’s 6.13 FIP over those same five starts points to a pitcher whose actual performance has been far less convincing than the ERA says. A .164 BABIP against him during that span has helped keep the damage down, and that kind of batted-ball luck is hard to bank on.
If he were missing bats and living on weak contact, maybe that would be one thing. Instead, his average exit velocity against sits in the bottom 21% of the league this season, and even in his strong start against Miami he still allowed 10 batted balls over 90 mph.
The box score version of the story is also a little kinder than the real one. Over his last 28 innings, Elder has allowed 19 hits and 12 walks while striking out 21.
That line has led to 10 runs, eight of them earned. So yes, he’s getting through starts and keeping Atlanta afloat more often than not right now.
But he’s doing it on a tightrope, not with the kind of dominance that suggests a real breakout.
That’s why it’s a mistake to treat this stretch as proof that Elder has suddenly solved the Braves’ pitching problem. The results have improved, but the warning signs are still loud. Atlanta still needs somebody else to step forward before Elder’s current run snaps back to earth.
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