The Braves got the kind of Thursday night that keeps a division race humming. Atlanta avoided a sweep against the Rays thanks to another improbable outing from Martin Perez, and the timing mattered just as much as the result. With the Phillies also losing to the Astros, the Braves head into this weekend’s series between the two clubs with their grip on the NL East looking stronger and their magic number shrinking into single digits.
That’s the big-picture reality now: Atlanta’s path to the postseason is tightening fast, and the division chase is starting to feel like it could break one way soon. The Braves also had to deal with Lane Thomas going down with an injury right before the game, but the night still broke their way in the standings.
As of the morning of September 11, Atlanta’s magic number to make the playoffs is 8. The number to win the NL East sits at 11.
The Padres and Diamondbacks are the first teams worth watching in the Wild Card picture, since they’re battling for the final NL spot. That race is close enough that, for now, the cleanest answer is probably to hope both teams lose as often as possible, with the Padres getting knocked out looking like the preferred outcome.
A division clinch still isn’t right around the corner unless Atlanta makes a serious statement this weekend. If the Braves were to sweep the Phillies, they’d push their lead to seven games and hold the tiebreaker, which would create some possible but still pretty narrow clinching scenarios for late next week. More likely, this runs deeper into the final two weeks of the season.
The projection systems like Atlanta’s position, too. Fangraphs currently gives the Braves a 93% chance to win the NL East, and that figure would climb even higher if they can avoid getting swept by Philadelphia.
A playoff spot is easier to reach, but Atlanta still needs the right combination of results. With the magic number at eight, the Braves need to keep stacking wins while the Diamondbacks stumble against the Rangers, Marlins, and Yankees if Atlanta is going to lock up a postseason berth next week. It’s doable, but not simple, especially with the Braves about to run through the Phillies, Cubs, and Astros in order.
In Other News...
Braves Suddenly Have An Outfield Problem They Didnt Plan For
Lane Thomas was already fighting for his place in Atlantas outfield mix, and now the Braves have to navigate life without him for at least a stretch after placing him on the injured list with an intercostal injury. Since arriving, Thomas has struggled to get much going at the plate, batting .171/.261/.317 in 21 games, and the injury only adds to the uncertainty around how often he would have played even if he had stayed healthy.
For a club that has leaned on depth to get through the season, losing another outfield option is more than a small inconvenience. It tightens the margin on the bench and could force the Braves to shuffle the roster to cover innings and at-bats in the outfield, especially while they try to sort out who can handle regular work and who might simply be insurance. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Just Took Another Hit To Their Pitching Depth
The Braves saw another bit of pitching depth slip away when the Giants claimed right-hander Duncan Davitt off waivers and sent him to Triple-A Sacramento. San Francisco cleared room on its 40-man roster by designating Spencer Bivens for assignment, a reminder of how quickly these fringe arm transactions can ripple through a bullpen picture this time of year.
Atlantas interest, of course, is less about the Giants paperwork than its own October posture. The club placed Bryce Elder on the injured list while activating Reynaldo Lpez, a move that keeps the big-league staff aligned for the postseason but also underscores how thin the cushion can be when injuries and roster churn hit at the same time. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Add Catching Depth As Their October Plan Gets More Interesting
The Braves added another layer to their catching picture on September 1, signing Eric Haase to a minor league contract and sending him to their Florida complex. It is the kind of low-risk move that can matter in September, especially for a team always trying to keep its roster flexible as the calendar turns toward October. Atlanta already views Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy as its catching duo, but the addition of Haase gives the club another experienced name to keep in the mix.
Haase has been around the block this season, having played for three organizations, including the Giants and White Sox. His appeal has always been obvious enough: real power from a catcher, even if the strikeouts have come with it. If the Braves decide they want him available for the postseason, he is eligible as long as the paperwork is filed by the league deadline, leaving at least one more roster decision hanging as the October picture comes into focus. [Read more 🡒]