The Braves come into tonight riding a six-game winning streak, and they’ll try to make it seven with Bryce Elder on the mound against Miami’s Eury Pérez.
Pérez has been one of the few real bright spots for the Marlins this season. Miami finally snapped a twelve-game losing streak on July 26, then followed that by winning six of eight, a stretch that included a sweep of the Phillies and taking three of four from the Mets.
Pérez has been right in the middle of that run. He has already thrown 104.2 innings, the most he’s logged in a season, and he’s put together a 3.44 ERA with a 1.099 WHIP while striking out 9.6 per nine innings.
The underlying numbers suggest some regression could be coming. His expected ERA sits at 3.83, and that’s tied to a .248 BABIP that is probably not sustainable over a long stretch.
Even so, he’s been genuinely effective, and his .211 expected batting average against ranks in the top 17.0 percent of qualified pitchers. The stuff is real, especially when it comes to getting hitters to chase and miss.
There is also one pitch shape that could matter a lot here. Pérez’s four-seam fastball has produced a Run Value of five, and the Braves have had trouble against that pitch type this season outside of Baldwin, Harris, and Olson.
Five qualified Atlanta hitters have a negative run value against four-seamers, with Smith at two and Albies at one. Still, the Braves have had success against Pérez before.
In April, they scored three earned runs against him over 4.0 innings.
The individual matchups lean Atlanta’s way in a small sample, too. No active Braves player has faced Pérez more than eight at-bats, but several have done damage: Baldwin has a 2.125 OPS with two home runs in six at-bats, Acuña has a 1.738 OPS with one homer in six at-bats, Albies has a 1.000 OPS with a homer in seven at-bats, Harris is hitting .333 in six at-bats, Olson has an .819 OPS in eight at-bats, and Riley is batting .400 in five at-bats.
That said, those numbers are tiny, and Pérez has been much sharper lately. Over his last five starts, he has a 1.69 ERA with 31 strikeouts and only eight walks.
Elder has been one of the more surprising arms in the Braves’ rotation this season. His 3.84 ERA has held steady despite some ups and downs, and his 119.2 innings lead the team. Atlanta has already used 31 different pitchers this year, not counting the trade deadline additions.
He was excellent against Miami back in April, when he allowed no earned runs on four hits over 5.2 innings with seven strikeouts and two walks. Since the start of July, Elder has a 3.00 ERA, but the indicators behind it are rough.
His FIP is 7.14, his K/BB ratio is only 1.8, and his Statcast profile is packed with blue, a sign he has been below average in nearly every area that matters when it comes to peripherals. He has also benefited from a .263 BABIP, well below his .289 career mark.
The game may end up being decided more by the bats than the arms. On the surface, the pitching matchup suggests a tight duel, but the offensive numbers point in another direction.
Since the start of July, the Braves are tied with the Cubs for the most runs scored in MLB, while the Marlins are 20th. Since the All-Star break, Atlanta is seventh in runs scored and Miami is 28th.
If the Braves can get to Pérez again, they should be in good shape. But as always, baseball doesn’t promise anything.
First pitch is at 7:15 EDT.
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