After a season that left Braves fans scratching their heads and shaking their fists, Atlanta enters 2026 surrounded by both high expectations and lingering doubts. The numbers might say one thing - FanGraphs currently gives them an 87.5% chance to make the postseason and the second-best odds to win the World Series at 10.4% - but the recent results tell a more complicated story.
Let’s rewind for a second. From 2018 through 2023, the Braves were the gold standard in the NL East.
Six straight division titles. A World Series ring.
A steady rise in win totals that peaked with a 104-win campaign in 2023. But since then, the wheels haven’t just wobbled - they’ve come dangerously close to coming off.
Atlanta managed 89 wins in 2024, just enough to sneak into the playoffs. In 2025, the bottom fell out entirely.
The Braves won just 72 games, missed the postseason for the first time since 2018, and finished fourth in the division. This wasn’t just a slump - it was a full-blown collapse.
And yet, here we are in 2026, with projections still painting the Braves as a top-tier contender. That optimism, at least in part, stems from the context of their struggles.
No team in baseball has been more snakebitten by injuries over the past two seasons. In 2025, every single member of their Opening Day rotation landed on the injured list for at least six weeks.
Four of them didn’t return. That’s not just bad luck - that’s a nightmare scenario.
Even the deepest, most resilient teams in the league would’ve buckled under that kind of strain.
But the injury concerns haven’t gone away. As this season approaches, Atlanta’s entire rotation is still working its way back from extended recovery timelines.
On top of that, catcher Sean Murphy and infielder Ha-Seong Kim are already expected to miss the first six weeks of the season. That’s a tough pill to swallow before a single pitch has been thrown.
And then there’s the issue of performance. Several of Atlanta’s cornerstone players - Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, and Ozzie Albies - are coming off the worst seasons of their careers.
Whether it was injuries, mechanics, or mental fatigue, the production simply wasn’t there. Combine that with the expected departure of Marcell Ozuna, who mashed 79 home runs and drove in over 200 runs across 2023 and 2024, and you’re looking at a lineup that suddenly doesn’t feel quite as intimidating.
Still, it’s not all doom and gloom. There’s a version of this season where the Braves get healthy, their stars bounce back, and the machine starts humming again. If that happens, Atlanta absolutely has the firepower to chase 100 wins and go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers in October - just like they did during their recent run of dominance.
But that’s a big “if.” Betting on health and rebound seasons across the board is a risky proposition, especially when the last two years have provided more questions than answers.
The Braves have the talent. They have the pedigree.
But they also have a mountain to climb - and projections alone won’t get them to the top.