If North Dakota State makes the jump to the Mountain West, it won’t just be another FCS-to-FBS success story-it could be a turning point for the College Football Playoff itself. We’re talking about a move that could shake the very foundation of how postseason access is granted in an increasingly crowded FBS landscape.
North Dakota State Isn’t Just Ready-They’re Built for This
Let’s get one thing straight: the question of whether the Bison can compete at the FBS level has already been answered. Their résumé speaks volumes. National championships, dominant regular seasons, and wins over Power Five opponents-this program isn’t climbing the ladder; they’re leaping entire rungs.
The more pressing issue isn’t if NDSU can win at the next level-it’s what happens when they do. And if South Dakota State, Montana, or Montana State follow suit, we’re not just talking about a few plucky newcomers. We’re looking at a wave of ready-made contenders entering a system that’s already struggling to make room for everyone.
The CFP’s Crowded House Problem
Even with expansion on the horizon, the College Football Playoff was built on the idea that only a select few teams would truly contend each year. That assumption is starting to crack. A program like North Dakota State joining the Mountain West could be the shove that sends it toppling.
The Mountain West would instantly gain another team capable of building a Top 12 résumé. That’s not just good for the conference-it’s a challenge for the selection committee.
Group of Five champions are already fighting for limited playoff real estate. Add a dominant NDSU to the mix, and the competition for those slots gets even tighter.
Now imagine South Dakota State and others following NDSU’s path. You’ve got multiple former FCS powers battling alongside long-established Group of Five contenders for the same narrow path to the playoff. At that point, it’s not just about who deserves a shot-it’s about how many deserving teams the system can actually handle.
The Familiarity Bias Gets Tested
The CFP committee has never come out and said it favors big-name programs, but let’s be honest-familiarity matters. Whether it’s intentional or not, brand recognition has played a role in how teams are evaluated.
That’s where North Dakota State becomes a fascinating case study. They wouldn’t be entering the FBS as a rebuild.
They’d arrive as a fully formed, battle-tested program with championship expectations and a coaching staff that’s been through the wars. They’ve already shown they can beat Power Five teams.
The only thing they’d be lacking is a seat at the big table.
And if they start winning in the Mountain West right away-as history suggests they might-the committee will have a tough time ignoring them. That’s when the playoff conversation stops being theoretical and starts becoming logistical.
Is 16 Teams Really the Finish Line?
A 16-team playoff was supposed to be the answer. More access, more equity, more excitement. But ironically, the rise of programs like NDSU could reveal just how limited that expansion really is.
As more top-tier FCS programs make the jump to FBS, the number of legitimate playoff-caliber teams grows. The Power conferences won’t give up their at-large bids.
Conference champions will still expect automatic entry. And now, leagues like the Mountain West will demand that their best teams be taken seriously.
In that environment, a 16-team bracket starts to feel less like a solution and more like a stopgap. What once seemed excessive-going beyond 16-might soon feel necessary just to keep up with the sport’s growth.
A Blueprint for the Future
For years, FCS football has existed in a separate lane, largely ignored in playoff planning. But that separation is fading fast. If North Dakota State makes a successful transition, they’ll lay out a clear roadmap for other ambitious programs: dominate FCS, invest in infrastructure and NIL, move up with momentum, and demand immediate relevance.
That blueprint is repeatable. And once it’s proven, schools like Montana and Montana State won’t be seen as long shots-they’ll be seen as the next logical step.
The CFP will no longer just be selecting teams. It’ll be managing the ripple effects of upward mobility in a sport that’s outgrowing its old boundaries.
Group of Five Perception Could Shift Overnight
One of the most intriguing outcomes of NDSU’s move could be how it changes the way we view Group of Five football. If a former FCS power joins the Mountain West and immediately competes, it challenges long-held assumptions about ceilings and conference hierarchies.
It forces us to ask: how much of the current structure is based on merit, and how much is just inertia?
The Bigger Picture
Make no mistake-North Dakota State joining the Mountain West would be historic. But the real story might not be written in the first season. The true impact could come years down the road, when the CFP is staring at a playoff bracket that simply can’t hold all the teams with a legitimate claim.
In that future, the Bison wouldn’t just be another success story. They’d be a symbol of a sport evolving faster than its postseason format can handle. And they might be the catalyst that forces college football’s power brokers to stop managing growth incrementally-and start thinking about what comes next.
Because here’s the reality: college football is expanding. The talent pool is deeper.
The contenders are multiplying. And programs like North Dakota State aren’t just joining the conversation-they’re changing it.