Week 4 brought a sharp split in ESPN’s latest FPI ratings, with a few teams making real noise and others taking a hard step backward. The numbers are never perfect, but they do a good job of showing which programs left the weekend with momentum and which ones are suddenly staring at a tougher road.
Arkansas had the biggest climb among the power conferences after its 34-6 win over Tulsa, but the leap still comes with a catch. The Hogs are still stuck in the SEC basement, and ESPN’s model gives them just an 8.7% chance to reach six wins.
That’s not exactly a comfortable spot in a league where 14th-place Kentucky is ranked 36th nationally. Vanderbilt and South Carolina are also sitting in the group that FPI sees as unlikely to get to six wins, with the Commodores at 35% and the Gamecocks at 39.9%.
Wisconsin’s 24-20 comeback win at Penn State was the kind of result that can change a season’s tone in a hurry. The Badgers erased a 17-0 deficit and may have done enough to save Luke Fickell’s job. ESPN’s projection now pegs Wisconsin’s most likely record at 8-4, and the model even gives the Badgers a 5.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff.
Stanford also moved up after a 34-27 win over Georgia Tech, though the Cardinal still have a long climb ahead. They remain in the basement of the ACC and, even more strikingly, in the basement of all power four teams. Still, FPI now gives Stanford a 12% chance to get to six wins and qualify for a bowl.
Maryland’s weekend went the opposite direction. The Terps were beaten 54-3 by UCLA, and the loss hit hard in the FPI update. Maryland’s playoff chances dropped to zero, and its chance to get to six wins fell to 12.8%.
SMU, meanwhile, took a step into the middle of the ACC pack after grinding out a 34-24 win over FCS Missouri State. The Mustangs are still assigned a 4.7% shot at the Playoff and a 2.4% chance to win the conference, but the larger picture is more about the kind of season FPI sees ahead: mediocrity looks to be SMU’s lot in 2026.
West Virginia also slid after its 41-24 loss to Oklahoma State, dropping back after a surprising 3-0 start. The Mountaineers are now grouped with TCU, Iowa State and Arizona State among Big 12 teams that ESPN’s model thinks will have trouble getting to six wins.
In Other News...
Arkansas Depth Chart Sends A Clear Message Before Texas A&M
Arkansas Week 5 depth chart offered a fairly straightforward snapshot as the Razorbacks turn their attention to Texas A&M, with KJ Jackson staying locked in at quarterback and Sutton Smith still listed as the lead back. Even with that stability, there is at least one backfield wrinkle worth watching, because Cam Settles has picked up more carries lately and is beginning to carve out a larger role as the offense gets deeper into conference play.
The rest of the chart fills in the picture across both sides of the ball, laying out where the staff currently sees its first-string options and how the rotation is taking shape. For Arkansas, the release is less about surprises than it is about clarity, but these weekly listings can also hint at where competition is still alive and where the coaches are comfortable leaving things alone heading into a tougher SEC test. [Read more 🡒]
Arkansas Has A Real Opening In Texas A&Ms Biggest Weakness
Arkansas heads into its Week 5 matchup with Texas A&M at 2-2, and the timing is interesting after the Razorbacks bounced back with a solid win over Tulsa. There were still some rough edges for KJ Jackson, but the quarterback did show improvement, and that matters as Arkansas looks for signs it can carry momentum into a conference game against a team that just took a loss to LSU.
Marcel Reed has been the bigger concern on the other sideline, with his recent struggles putting Texas A&Ms offense under a brighter spotlight than usual. Mike Elko has already said Reed will remain the starter against Arkansas, which sets up a clear point of attention in a matchup between two teams trying to find some traction early in the season. For Arkansas, the opening is there if its defense can force the issue and keep Reed uncomfortable. [Read more 🡒]
Arkansas Heads To Kyle Field With One Big Offense Question
Arkansas heads to Kyle Field for an SEC matchup that should tell a lot about where the Razorbacks stand after a mixed start, with both teams sitting at 2-2 and coming off conference losses. It is the kind of early-season league game that can nudge a team back into the picture or leave it scrambling to recover, and the on-campus setting only adds to the feel that this one matters a little more than a typical September road trip.
For Arkansas, the larger concern is on offense, where the search for consistency has been the storyline even as the defense has tried to keep things manageable. Texas A&M brings a defense that will force the Razorbacks to prove they can move the ball cleanly and finish drives, and the answer to that question may say plenty about how competitive Arkansas can be as SEC play settles in. [Read more 🡒]