Week 2 brought a fresh round of shakeups in ESPN’s FPI, and not all of them lined up neatly with the scoreboard. Ohio State’s loss was enough to send the Buckeyes all the way to No. 1 in the ratings, but several other teams also saw major movement after the weekend.
Oklahoma State was one of the biggest winners. The Cowboys’ 39-31 upset of Oregon pushed them up nearly 20 spots, and ESPN now has them projected for six wins with a 1.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff.
That number may be a bit generous, but it marks a clear boost for Oklahoma State. Oregon, meanwhile, barely budged in the wrong direction, slipping just five spots.
NC State also got a sizable lift after its 73-0 win over Richmond. That result appears to have restored some faith in the Wolfpack after their rough Week 0 loss to Virginia. ESPN now projects NC State to six wins and gives it a 0.5% shot at the CFP.
Maryland made the biggest jump among Big Ten teams. The Terps climbed nearly a dozen spots after beating UConn 38-14. ESPN gives Maryland a 2.1% chance to reach the Playoff and a 69% shot at bowl eligibility, putting the Terps firmly in the middle of the conference pack.
Not every Big Ten team came out of Week 2 in good shape, though. Minnesota took a hit after a 38-13 home loss to Mississippi State and now sits with only Rutgers below it in the league’s FPI rankings. The Gophers have no shot at the Playoff and just a 21% chance of reaching six wins.
Washington is another team whose FPI number took a hit despite a 2-0 record. The Huskies’ 16-14 win over Utah State didn’t impress ESPN’s computers, and they dropped in a big way.
Washington is now 10th in the Big Ten, with a 2.3% shot at the Playoff and a 67.5% chance of becoming bowl eligible. It remains one of the lowest-ranked 2-0 power conference teams in the FPI.
Arkansas had the roughest slide of the bunch. The Razorbacks’ 43-10 loss to Utah sent them to the SEC cellar and near the bottom of all Power Four teams, with Rutgers the only team below them. ESPN gives Arkansas no chance at the Playoff and only a 2.3% shot at winning six games, with a 3-9 projection now in place.
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Arkansas Just Showed Its Hand In A Key Georgia Week Decision
Ryan Silverfields Week Three depth chart gave a clear read on where Arkansas stands heading into Georgia week: the defense and special teams are holding steady, while the offense gets only a few small tweaks. The biggest piece of continuity is at quarterback, where junior KJ Jackson remains the starter, a sign the Razorbacks are not looking to shake up the most important position this late in the buildup.
The rest of the chart looks more like fine-tuning than a reset, with Arkansas keeping its familiar structure across all three phases. For a team heading into one of its biggest tests, that kind of restraint says plenty about the staffs confidence in the current mix, even if the real answers will come only once the game starts and Georgia forces the issue. [Read more 🡒]
Arkansas Already Has One Big Offensive Problem Fans Cant Ignore
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Ryan Silverfield pointed to multiple offensive issues afterward and made clear the fixes have to come from everywhere, not just one spot. For Arkansas, the concern is bigger than a single bad performance because the trouble showed up in both the passing game and the run game, leaving little relief for a team that needs cleaner execution from every offensive position moving forward. [Read more 🡒]
Arkansas Already Has A KJ Jackson Question It Can't Ignore
KJ Jacksons first two games have left Arkansas with more questions than clarity at quarterback. The Razorbacks have leaned on the redshirt freshman to guide the offense, but his early showing has been uneven, with accuracy and confidence emerging as concerns while he has completed 38 of 69 passes for 406 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions.
Backup AJ Hill has not seen much action, yet even that limited work was enough to stir talk about whether a competition could develop if the offense does not clean itself up quickly. After the loss to Utah, Sam Pittman pointed to the need for improvement across the board, including the offensive line and the receivers, which means Jacksons situation is tied to much more than one players play. [Read more 🡒]