Arkansas will get another crack at Missouri on Saturday night, and the setup isn’t hard to read. The Tigers arrive in Fayetteville ranked No. 23, carrying the series edge and the current run in this manufactured SEC rivalry, while the Razorbacks are trying to flip a script that has tilted Missouri’s way for years.
Kickoff is set for 6:45 p.m. CT at Razorback Stadium, with the game on SEC Network and the Arkansas Razorbacks Sports Network carrying the radio call. FanDuel lists Missouri as a 9.5-point favorite, with the over/under at 48.5.
The numbers behind the matchup lean Missouri’s way in a big way. The Tigers are 10-2 in this series since 2012 and lead it 12-4 overall.
Arkansas last beat Missouri in 2021, when the Razorbacks rolled to a 34-17 win in Fayetteville. Eight of the 16 meetings have gone to one possession, though Missouri has also turned six of its wins into double-digit results.
Another wrinkle: only one first-year Arkansas coach has ever beaten Missouri, and that was Glen Rose back in 1944, a 7-6 win in St. Louis.
ESPN’s Football Power Index is not exactly buying an upset. It gives Missouri a 73.4% chance to win and grab a fifth straight victory in the series, which would match its run from 2016-2020.
Arkansas, meanwhile, sits at 3-4 overall and 1-3 in the SEC, with just a 4.2% chance of getting to six wins with five games left. The Razorbacks have not missed bowl eligibility in back-to-back seasons since 2018-19 under Chad Morris.
That leaves the Hogs in a familiar spot: needing a clean game against a team that has handled this rivalry well for a long time. One of the issues Arkansas has had this season is giving up explosives, and the Razorbacks have allowed 26 gains of 20 yards or more, which ranks 45th in the FBS.
Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz spent part of his Tuesday press conference laying out what his team sees on the other side. He pointed to the Razorbacks’ playmakers, naming Chris Marshall, KJ Jackson and running back Braylen Russell.
"They've got good players, obviously. Besides Chris Marshall and KJ Jackson, the running back Braylen Russell has been a talented big back that has given us problems in the past," Drinkwitz said. "If you think about (Mississippi State running back) Fluff [Bothwell] and some of those guys, so that that's going to be a real challenge for us (defensively)."
Drinkwitz also singled out Arkansas pass rusher Quincy Rhodes, Jr., who has started to heat up over the last three games. In that span, Rhodes has logged eight tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, one sack and a 58-yard fumble recovery.
"And then, obviously, I think defensively, you know, Quincy Rhodes Jr. is a game wrecker," Drinkwitz said. "He's a guy who can single-handedly take over a game and does a great job not only against the run, but in in pass downs, play actions. He destroys pulling guards and still gets to the quarterback.
"Whether it's the Utah game forcing an interception, whether it's against Tennessee in that fumble recovery, the guy is an elite player and well deserving of all the accolades that he's received. So, going to be a tremendous game, tremendous environment, and a tremendous challenge for our team."
Missouri may have to keep waiting on star running back Ahmad Hardy. He has been cleared to return to practice, but Drinkwitz said his availability for Arkansas, or for any game this season, is still uncertain.
"We're really just going based off he practiced yesterday, everything went good, but it's really going to be about how does he feel today because we don't know if he can do a back-to-back practice, and then how does that translate till tomorrow," Drinkwitz said. "There's no timeline on if this, then this, then this. It's, hey, we'll see how today goes, and then we'll figure out what tomorrow looks like and go from there.
"I don't know if he'll be back for Arkansas. I don't know if he'll be back for Texas.
I don't know if he'll be back for the bowl game. Nobody knows."
On Arkansas’ side, first-year coach Ryan Silverfield has tried to keep the message simple. He said this week the focus is on moving forward rather than dwelling on Missouri’s recent success in the series.
"I always appreciate former players. I always appreciate the entire history of Arkansas football.
I think everybody realizes how important that is to me and this program," Silverfield said on Monday. "But we have not talked about the recent failures between us and our opponent, right, versus Missouri.
So that is zero reflection or zero effect on what we're going to do moving forward."
"... I think more than anything, right, we appreciate the trophy.
A lot of respect for that, but ultimately, it's the next game. It's very, very important for us to go out there, in a rivalry game, and put our best foot forward, just like it would be any game."
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