Arkansas Fans Should Be Careful With Early Calipari Takeaways

Exhibition game results often mislead fans and analysts, as Arkansas' real potential will only emerge in the regular season.

As Arkansas gets ready to face Gonzaga on Saturday and Memphis on Oct. 28, the temptation will be to treat every possession like a clue. That’s understandable.

No. 12 Arkansas and No.

15 Gonzaga are both good teams, and the chance to see them play on Nolan Richardson Court inside Bud Walton Arena is going to matter to fans.

But the bigger point is right there in the setup: it’s October, and both head coaches have already shared each other’s inbounds plays and said they’ll be playing man-to-man defense exclusively. These aren’t regular-season conditions, and both teams will look very different when they open in the first week of November, let alone by the time conference play starts in January and the postseason arrives in March.

That’s why exhibition results can tell you something without telling you everything. You can spot small trends.

You can notice how a team handles pressure, or how a young player fits. What you can’t do is read a team’s ceiling or floor off one or two tune-ups.

Arkansas’ recent exhibition history is a pretty good reminder of that.

In 2021, the Hogs barely survived East Central, 77-74, and North Texas, 68-60, in exhibition play before putting together a strong season that included a win over No. 1 Auburn and a second straight trip to the Sweet 16.

A year later, Arkansas took a 30-point loss to Texas in an exhibition and still went on to reach the Sweet 16 again.

Then came 2023, when the Hogs crushed UT Tyler 92-39 and beat No. 1 Purdue 81-77 in overtime, only to finish 16-17 overall and 6-12 in SEC play during Eric Musselman’s final season in Fayetteville.

Last year was another reminder not to get too attached to October results. John Calipari’s first Arkansas team beat No. 1 Kansas 85-69, then went to Fort Worth and lost 66-65 to TCU in the two exhibition games before enduring that infamous 0-5 start in SEC play and later finding its footing.

That’s the whole lesson. Exhibition games are useful, and they’re fun.

Young players get reps. Fans get a first look.

Coaches get film they can actually use. But when it comes to predicting a season, they’re shaky evidence at best.

No. 2 Duke made that point pretty loudly Tuesday, throttling No.

8 Tennessee 103-64 in an exhibition. Duke is clearly a strong team, but Tennessee is, too, and there’s every reason to think the Vols will look much better once the games count for real and wind up near the top of the SEC again.

It would be a surprise if Duke handled Michigan State and Illinois that way during the regular season.

So yes, Arkansas’ games against Gonzaga and Memphis will be picked apart from the moment they’re over. Fans will overreact.

Media members will overreact. That’s part of the deal.

But until Arkansas’ official season-opener on Nov. 3, the final word really shouldn’t be written. When this season is over, these two exhibitions will probably be remembered as nothing more than two entertaining basketball games that didn’t decide much of anything.

In Other News...

Jordan Smith Jr.'s Scary Exit Left Arkansas Fans Holding Their Breath

Arkansas spent part of its exhibition against No. 15 Gonzaga holding its breath after freshman guard Jordan Smith Jr. went down following contact on a fast break and had to be helped to the locker room by athletic trainers. The injury appeared to involve his right knee, and the early concern was obvious when he initially did not put weight on the leg.

Smith later returned to the bench with about nine minutes remaining, offering at least some relief after a frightening scene for a player expected to be part of Arkansas backcourt mix. Even in a tune-up, an injury like that can overshadow the rest of the night, especially with the regular season approaching and Razorbacks fans eager to see what the freshman can bring. [Read more 🡒]

Arkansas Gets An Early Test Calipari Fans Will Read Into

A high-level measuring stick is coming to Bud Walton Arena on Oct. 24, when Arkansas meets Gonzaga in an exhibition that should tell both programs a lot about where they stand before the games start counting. The matchup brings together two nationally ranked teams with plenty of preseason attention, and it gives Arkansas an early chance to see how its roster looks against another team with real March expectations.

For John Calipari and the Razorbacks, it is the kind of test that tends to get read into long after the final buzzer, even if the result will not touch the official record. Arkansas has reason to believe it can make noise this season after strong recruiting and recent tournament success, while Gonzaga is using the trip to sharpen itself against a top opponent and gauge what still needs to be cleaned up before opening night. [Read more 🡒]

Arkansas Gets An Early Gonzaga Test Fans Needed To See

Arkansas is getting a chance to measure itself early against one of the sports standard-bearers, with Gonzaga set to visit for a marquee preseason exhibition that should tell plenty about where John Caliparis team stands. The matchup brings together a roster mix that includes notable transfers and returning players on both sides, and it arrives at a useful time for a program still ironing out the details of how it wants to play this season.

Calipari has already adjusted the offense in anticipation of the test, putting more of the emphasis on defensive intensity and competitiveness as the Razorbacks prepare for a game that should feel plenty real despite the exhibition label. Freshman Miikka Muurinen was recently cleared after eligibility concerns, adding another layer to Arkansas preseason picture, and with both teams expecting a competitive night, the bigger question is how much the Razorbacks can learn before the games start counting. [Read more 🡒]