FAYETTEVILLE - Arkansas is staring at a game it never wanted to be discussing this early, but here we are: Tulsa has turned into the kind of opponent that can send the Razorbacks spiraling or give Ryan Silverfield’s first season a badly needed lift.
The setup is uncomfortable for Arkansas. The Hogs are 1-2, have been outscored 88-27 in their two games against FBS opponents, and have yet to look settled on offense.
Even against North Alabama, the unit never really found a groove. Against No.
15 Utah and No. 2 Georgia, the struggles were much more severe.
Quarterback remains a problem, too. KJ Jackson started the first two games, then split reps with backup AJ Hill against Georgia on Saturday. A quarter of the way into the season, Arkansas still doesn’t have a clear answer at the position.
That is what makes Tulsa such a dangerous visitor. The Golden Hurricane are 3-0 for the first time since 2008, and that season is memorable in Fayetteville for another reason: Tulsa pushed Bobby Petrino’s Arkansas team hard in that game.
This year’s version has already made noise by knocking off Oklahoma State 24-10 in Week 1, then watching the Cowboys go on to beat No. 20 Oregon in Week 2.
Tulsa also hasn’t beaten Arkansas since 1976, and the Razorbacks own the series 55-16-3. Arkansas won the last meeting in Fayetteville, 23-0, in 2018. Even Chad Morris beat the Golden Hurricane.
But records and history only go so far when one team is playing like this and the other has a defense that’s been stingy from the jump. Tulsa’s defense ranks seventh nationally in total defense through three games. It held Oklahoma State and quarterback Drew Mestemaker to 10 points, survived Sam Houston 23-17 in Week 2, and then shut out East Texas A&M 42-0 on Saturday.
Tulsa’s offense has been less convincing. Baylor Hayes was solid, if not spectacular, against Oklahoma State and Sam Houston, and he missed Saturday’s game against East Texas A&M. Still, Arkansas has not given anyone much reason to trust its own defense after being overmatched by Utah and Georgia.
That’s why this matchup carries real upset potential. Arkansas has been sloppy, short on confidence and still searching for offensive rhythm. Tulsa already owns a Power Four win, and with the way the Golden Hurricane have started, this may be one of the best chances all season for a Group of Six team to knock off a Power Four opponent.
And yet, the expectation remains that Arkansas should win. SEC teams at home are supposed to handle this kind of game, even if Saturday’s crowd is expected to be thin. ESPN gives the Razorbacks an 8.5-point edge and a 54.5 percent chance to win, which says plenty about how shaky things feel without making the game a toss-up.
That’s the tension here. Tulsa looks capable.
Arkansas looks vulnerable. And if the Razorbacks stumble, the fallout would be immediate.
A win would give Silverfield a much-needed jolt and quiet at least some of the noise around a rough opening month. A loss would pour fuel on the frustration, send Arkansas to No. 23 Texas A&M at 1-3, and leave eight straight SEC games looming with the possibility of a 1-11 season becoming very real.
Maybe it’s early to throw around must-win language. But on Sept. 26, for Arkansas and Tulsa, that’s exactly what this feels like.
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