With a little more than a month to go before Selection Sunday, Arkansas basketball finds itself in a strong position. The Razorbacks, sitting at 16-6 overall and 6-3 in SEC play, have put together a solid tournament résumé as they hit the back half of the conference schedule. While Saturday’s 85-77 loss at home to an unranked Kentucky team stung-and likely dealt a blow to any hopes of chasing down the SEC regular-season title-this is still a team that’s firmly in the NCAA Tournament picture with room to improve its seeding.
Tournament Outlook: Solid Ground, Room to Climb
According to the Bracket Matrix, which compiles projections from over 100 bracketologists, Arkansas is a lock in every single bracket as of Tuesday night. The Hogs are averaging out as a 5.62 seed, with 42 projections placing them as a 5-seed, 60 as a 6-seed, and just two pegging them as a 7-seed. That’s a strong consensus from the bracketology world-and a sign that, despite a few bumps, Arkansas is viewed as one of the more reliable teams in the field.
CBS Sports has Arkansas slotted as a 6-seed in the East Region, matched up against 11-seed Tulsa in a hypothetical first-round game in Tampa. That path would potentially lead to a second-round showdown with 3-seed Purdue-a team that’s been a staple near the top of the rankings all season-and 14-seed North Dakota State.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi also updated his bracket this week, and while Arkansas had been flirting with the 5-line for much of the season, they’ve slid to a 6-seed in his latest projection. In this scenario, they’d face 11-seed Miami (FL) in Oklahoma City, with the winner likely drawing 3-seed Nebraska or 14-seed Portland State in the next round.
So while the Hogs may have lost some ground in the seeding race, they’re still in a position of strength. And with nine regular-season games left-five of them Quad 1 opportunities-there’s plenty of time to climb back up the bracket.
Resume Breakdown: Metrics Back It Up
The analytics paint a clear picture: Arkansas is a team with a top-tier profile. Here’s where the Razorbacks stand across several key metrics:
- NET Ranking: Unlisted, but implied strong based on other metrics
- KenPom: 25th
- Bart Torvik (T-Rank): 28th
- BPI (ESPN): 29th
- KPI: 25th
- WAB (Wins Above Bubble): 21st
- Strength of Record: 17th
- Strength of Schedule: 12th
That’s a résumé that screams tournament-caliber, and not just as a fringe team-this is a group that’s been consistently performing against quality competition. The strength of schedule ranking at 12th nationally shows they haven’t been padding the win column with cupcakes, and the top-30 marks across multiple advanced metrics confirm they’re passing the eye test with the computers too.
The Road Ahead: Nine Games, Five Quad 1s
Arkansas is on a midweek bye before a critical two-game road stretch begins this Saturday. First up is a trip to Starkville to face Mississippi State (11-11, 3-6 SEC), a game that falls into Quad 2 territory.
The Razorbacks are favored, with KenPom giving them a 70% chance to win. Then it’s off to Baton Rouge to take on LSU, a Quad 1 game that’s more of a toss-up (56% chance per KenPom).
Here’s a breakdown of the remaining schedule and what’s at stake:
- Feb. 7 at Mississippi State (Q2, NET 94) - 70% win probability
- Feb. 10 at LSU (Q1, NET 57) - 56%
- Feb. 14 vs. Auburn (Q1, NET 29) - 66%
- Feb. 18 at Alabama (Q1, NET 22) - 33%
- **Feb. 21 vs.
Missouri (Q2, NET 69)** - 83%
- **Feb. 25 vs.
Texas A&M (Q2, NET 35)** - 67%
- Feb. 28 at Florida (Q1A, NET 12) - 21%
- Mar. 4 vs. Texas (Q2, NET 39) - 69%
- Mar. 7 at Missouri (Q1, NET 69) - 62%
The biggest challenge on that slate? A late-February trip to Gainesville to face Florida, a Quad 1A game that represents one of the toughest tests left on the schedule.
But even outside of that, the SEC grind isn’t letting up. Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M are all capable of giving the Razorbacks trouble, and even the seemingly more manageable games carry weight in the eyes of the selection committee.
What’s Next?
The Razorbacks are in a good spot right now, but there’s still work to be done. The path to a higher seed-and possibly a more favorable region-runs through these next few weeks. If Arkansas can rack up a couple more Quad 1 wins and avoid any bad losses, they’ll be in prime position heading into the SEC Tournament in Nashville.
For now, the focus is Mississippi State. Handle business there, and the Hogs can start building momentum for a crucial February stretch. March is coming fast-and Arkansas is right in the thick of it.