Week 4 is packed with heavyweight matchups, but the better betting value might be hiding a layer deeper. Instead of chasing the obvious games, the focus here is on a handful of underdogs that can win outright in college football prediction markets.
Clemson is the first call. The Tigers are a team I’m generally down on - the offense has been rough, and the defense doesn’t look like the force it was even a couple of years ago.
Still, seeing Clemson as an underdog against Cal feels like too much. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and the Cal offense have been a disappointment early, and the defense doesn’t seem to have much to lean on either.
Yes, this is a long trip for Clemson, but Dabo Swinney usually has his team ready. The late kickoff on Friday night also helps from a body-clock angle.
Tulsa is another live upset pick at Arkansas. The Golden Hurricane already showed they can walk into a tough spot and pull one out after upsetting Oklahoma State earlier this year.
They’ll be without starting quarterback Baylor Hayes, but he’s been uneven anyway. Arkansas, meanwhile, has looked bad on both sides of the ball in both of its FBS games so far.
There’s also a coaching angle here: this is the kind of game Ryan Silverfield used to drop all the time at Memphis, where he was just 9-6 straight up as a favorite of 7 points or fewer.
Maryland is worth a look over UCLA. The Terps are coming off a frustrating Week 3 loss to Virginia Tech, but Malik Washington still makes them appealing, especially as a home underdog.
Mike Locksley may be coaching for his job in the coming weeks, which adds another layer to this spot. UCLA has started well under Bob Chesney, but the Bruins still haven’t left California yet.
Now comes a cross-country trip and a 9:30 a.m. PT kickoff on Saturday.
Welcome to the Big Ten, Coach Chesney.
Iowa over Michigan is hard to ignore. Michigan hasn’t shown nearly enough this season to deserve favorite status against anyone with a pulse.
The Wolverines were flirting with disaster against UTEP at halftime last week, and they wouldn’t have beaten Oklahoma without a gift-wrapped interception and a string of other mistakes from John Mateer. The total sits at 38.5, which basically suggests the market thinks Michigan can get to more than 21 points against Iowa.
I don’t buy that.
The final upset play is UCF over TCU. The last time TCU faced a real test, it got blown out by North Carolina in Dublin.
Since then, the Horned Frogs have handled Grambling State and Arkansas State comfortably, but that hasn’t answered much. Jaden Craig was bad against the Tar Heels in the rain, though he’s been excellent in better conditions against weaker teams.
This is a bet that he runs into trouble again once the competition rises. With so much still unknown about TCU, I’d rather take the home team and the points.
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Among 206 semifinalists nationally and 14 from the SEC, Smiths inclusion puts him in a select group with another important milestone still ahead. Finalists will be announced on October 21, and for Arkansas, the recognition is a feel-good nod to a player representing the program well beyond Saturday afternoons. [Read more 🡒]
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Isca Chelangat gives the opener an added layer of intrigue. The transfer and All-American is set to make her Arkansas debut at Gans Creek, giving the Razorbacks an early chance to see how a proven runner fits into the lineup as the season starts to take shape. [Read more 🡒]