The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings are out, and while the top of the board looks stable, there’s plenty of drama brewing just beneath the surface. With championship weekend on deck, we’re either headed for a smooth landing into Selection Sunday - or a full-on chaos scenario if a few key results break the wrong way.
Let’s break it down, starting at the top and working our way through the playoff picture.
No. 1 Ohio State vs.
No. 2 Indiana: A Clash of Unbeatens
Ohio State and Indiana are the last two undefeated teams in major college football, and they’re set to meet in the Big Ten title game with massive stakes. The Buckeyes hold the top spot, with Indiana right behind them at No.
- That matchup isn’t just for the conference crown - it’s likely for the No. 1 overall seed and a first-round bye in the 12-team playoff.
Even the loser is in solid shape to stay in the top four and earn that coveted bye, barring a blowout or a shakeup elsewhere. Bottom line: both teams are in the driver’s seat, and Saturday’s showdown will be must-watch football.
No. 4 Texas Tech: Safe for Now
Texas Tech moved up a spot to No. 4, which is a strong signal from the committee that the Red Raiders are in a good position - even if they lose to BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game. Sitting at 11-1, Tech’s résumé appears playoff-proof for now. If they fall short this weekend, the Big 12 could still land two teams in the field, which would be a major win for the conference.
No. 5 Oregon: Best Path to the Semis?
Oregon also climbed one spot, landing at No. 5.
That’s a sweet spot in this format. If the Ducks stay there, they’ll host a first-round playoff game against a Group of Five opponent.
Win that, and they’re likely headed for a quarterfinal clash with Texas Tech. For a team that’s been quietly building steam, Oregon might have the cleanest path to a semifinal berth - especially if chaos erupts above them.
No. 6 Mississippi: Still Rising, Even Without Kiffin
Mississippi moved up to No. 6, despite the headline-grabbing departure of head coach Lane Kiffin to LSU. That’s a big shakeup, but the committee isn’t factoring it into their evaluation - at least not yet.
“It’s impossible for us at this time as a committee to evaluate what the impact is on losing your head coach,” said committee chair Hunter Yurachek. Without a game played post-Kiffin, there’s simply no data point to measure the effect. So for now, Ole Miss holds steady.
No. 9 Alabama and No. 10 Notre Dame: A Fierce Debate
Here’s where things get spicy. Alabama jumped Notre Dame to take over the No. 9 spot - a move that might feel minor, but could have major implications.
The dividing line between playoff in and playoff out is right around that 10-11 range. If Alabama loses the SEC title game, they now have a little more breathing room to stay in the mix.
Yurachek acknowledged the back-and-forth between the Tide and Irish has been one of the most hotly contested debates in the committee room. “It really has split our committee,” he said.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, is inching dangerously close to No. 12 Miami - the team that beat them head-to-head.
Both are 10-2 and idle this week, but that doesn’t mean their rankings are locked in. The committee has left the door open for movement based on what happens in the championship games.
“Idle teams can move,” Yurachek explained. “There may be something that happens in a championship game that impacts an idle team - whether that’s their strength of schedule or some other datapoint.”
That’s a shift from last year’s policy, when idle teams couldn’t move up or down heading into Selection Sunday.
No. 11 BYU: Win or Go Home
BYU holds steady at No. 11, but don’t let that fool you - they’re not getting in as an at-large. The Cougars are the lowest-ranked one-loss team from a Power Five conference, and their only path into the playoff is by beating Texas Tech and securing the Big 12 title. Anything less, and they’re on the outside looking in.
No. 13 Texas: Big Win, But Still a Long Shot
Texas made a jump, climbing three spots to No. 13 after knocking off previously-unbeaten Texas A&M. That’s a quality win, no doubt. But it likely won’t be enough to get the three-loss Longhorns into the playoff, even with head coach Steve Sarkisian making his case.
Sarkisian’s argument? If Texas had opened the season against a cupcake instead of Ohio State, they’d be sitting at 10-2 and firmly in the mix.
But the committee is clearly putting a premium on loss totals. The current top 10 reflects that - two undefeateds, five one-loss teams, and three two-loss squads.
No. 15 Utah: Falling at the Wrong Time
Utah continues to slide. After back-to-back underwhelming performances against Kansas schools, the Utes have dropped three spots in two weeks, now sitting at No.
- Early on, the committee rewarded Utah for strong showings and style points.
But those have dried up, and the timing couldn’t be worse.
Group of Five Watch: Tulane, North Texas, James Madison
Three Group of Five teams round out the bottom of the rankings: No. 20 Tulane, No.
24 North Texas, and No. 25 James Madison.
That trio could play a big role in how the final playoff picture shakes out - especially for the ACC.
Here’s the deal: the ACC doesn’t have a guaranteed playoff spot. The five automatic bids go to the highest-ranked conference champions.
If No. 17 Virginia wins the ACC, they’re in.
But if unranked Duke wins the title - and remember, Duke is 7-5 with three non-conference losses - the Blue Devils could get leapfrogged by the American and Sun Belt champs.
That would leave the ACC champ out of the playoff entirely. Yes, you read that right.
What to Watch This Weekend
With championship games on tap and playoff spots on the line, here’s what to keep an eye on:
- Ohio State vs. Indiana: Winner gets the No. 1 seed and a bye.
The loser likely still gets a bye - but not guaranteed.
- **Texas Tech vs.
BYU**: Tech can lock in a top-four spot with a win. BYU needs a win to get in at all.
- ACC Title Game: Virginia can save the conference’s playoff hopes. Duke could win the title but miss the playoff entirely.
- Idle teams like Notre Dame and Miami: They’re not playing, but they’re not safe.
The playoff puzzle is almost complete. But with one weekend left, there’s still time for a few pieces to get scrambled.