The Big 12 regular-season title race just got a whole lot more interesting.
Iowa State’s 62-55 loss at TCU on Tuesday night didn’t just shake up the standings-it cracked the door wide open for a three-team sprint to the finish. With Kansas taking care of business against Arizona on Monday, the Jayhawks kept themselves firmly in the hunt alongside Houston and the Wildcats. And now, with just seven conference games left for each, we’ve got a genuine title chase on our hands.
Here’s where things stand: Arizona and Houston are both sitting at 10-1 in conference play, while Kansas is right behind at 9-2. Those three are the only teams that control their own destiny.
Win out, and the crown is yours. But, of course, that’s easier said than done-especially with the gauntlet that lies ahead.
Circle these dates: February 21, February 23, and February 28. That’s when the Big 12 race is likely to be decided.
First, Arizona heads to Houston in a matchup that could tilt the entire conference. Then, two nights later, the Cougars travel to Lawrence to face Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse.
Finally, Kansas visits Arizona in Tucson to close out the head-to-head battles among the contenders.
Kansas is in a tough spot. To have a real shot at the regular-season title, they’ll almost certainly need to beat both Houston and Arizona-no small task. But if they manage to pull it off, they could leapfrog both and claim the top spot.
The Arizona-Houston showdown on February 21 is the first domino. The winner of that game not only takes a one-game lead in the standings but also grabs the all-important tiebreaker. If Houston manages to sweep both Arizona and Kansas, the Wildcats’ matchup with the Jayhawks could end up being a battle for second place rather than the top of the table.
Looking at Arizona’s closing stretch, the Wildcats are favored in every remaining game except their trip to Houston. They’ll host Texas Tech this Saturday, then BYU midweek, followed by a road game at Baylor, home against Iowa State, and a regular-season finale at Colorado on March 7. It’s manageable, but the margin for error is razor-thin.
According to ESPN analytics, Houston has a 63.2% chance to beat Arizona in that pivotal February 21 matchup. That’s the only game where Arizona isn’t favored, and it’s swinging the odds in Houston’s favor for the Big 12 title.
FanDuel has the Cougars at +105 to win the conference, with Arizona close behind at +120. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives Houston a 65.1% shot at the title, while Arizona comes in at 56.5%.
In other words, the next few weeks are going to be a rollercoaster. The Big 12’s top three teams are set to collide in a seven-day stretch that could define the season-and possibly impact seeding come March.
Every possession, every rebound, every late-game decision will matter. Buckle up.
The Big 12 title race is heading into its final turn, and it’s shaping up to be a classic.