Arizona football is coming off a season that beat the numbers, but ESPN’s latest forecast still has the Wildcats sitting in a modest spot heading into 2026.
The College Football Power Index pegs Arizona at No. 34 nationally and projects a 7.3-4.8 record. That’s a familiar reminder that preseason models can miss on this team: a year ago, FPI had Arizona at 4.9-7.1 in the regular season, and the Wildcats finished 9-3 and reached the Holiday Bowl.
Even with that overachievement in the rearview, Arizona is not drawing much national love for the bigger goals it has in front of it. FPI gives the Wildcats an 80.1% chance to win at least six games, but only a 4.2% shot at winning the Big 12. ESPN’s model is a little more optimistic about the College Football Playoff, putting Arizona at 7.8%.
Within the Big 12, Arizona checks in fourth in FPI behind No. 10 Texas Tech, No.
20 BYU and No. 31 Utah.
All three of those teams are on Arizona’s schedule. The Wildcats also get matchups with the two Big 12 teams sitting at the bottom of the FPI rankings: No.
66 West Virginia and No. 72 Iowa State.
As for the overall slate, Arizona’s strength of schedule comes in at No. 53, right in the middle of the conference pack. Arizona State has the league’s toughest schedule at No. 30, while Texas Tech has the easiest at No. 71.
FPI, which debuted in 2013, is designed to measure how many points a team is above or below average and to project results from there. ESPN’s system runs 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, current results and the remaining schedule.