The Big 12 feels built for chaos again, and Texas Tech sits at the top of the pile heading into Week 1.
That’s not just about talent. It’s about the kind of season this conference seems ready to deliver.
The league is loaded with offenses that can pile up points, and the defenses, for the most part, look like they’re going to make a lot of Saturdays messy. The notable exceptions, at least on paper, are Texas Tech and BYU, and it would be a surprise if those two aren’t in Arlington in December.
Texas Tech enters the season with the cleanest runway of anyone in the league after all the Sorsby drama and nonsense that came with it. The Red Raiders finally get to stop talking and start playing, even if there’s already another wrinkle with Thomas Castellanos, whose eligibility is now under question. College football has no shortage of courtroom noise, and Texas Tech is already tangled in some of it before the first weekend is even over.
BYU checks in right behind them, and Bear Bachmeier is the story in Provo. If he keeps developing as a passer, the Cougars have the kind of profile that can carry them into the College Football Playoff conversation.
Bachmeier was a true freshman last season and only got forced into the starting job after Jake Retzlaff’s suspension because of the honor code. This was never supposed to be his moment.
Now it is.
Houston lands at No. 3, and this weekend should tell us something when the Cougars face Oregon State. There are real questions to answer: who replaces Dean Conners in the backfield, whether Keisean Henderson gets used enough, and who picks up Tanner Koziol’s targets. If Houston is what it hopes to be, those answers should come while it’s rolling by 20-plus points.
Kansas State is next, and the ceiling there depends on Collin Klein. What he did for Marcel Reed is already on the record, and if he can work that same kind of magic on Avery Johnson, the Wildcats have real Big 12 title upside. Johnson has more physical tools than Reed did, and the idea here is simple: if Klein could turn Reed into an above-average dual-threat quarterback, what happens with a better raw package?
Utah sits at No. 5, though there’s a little more uncertainty than usual around the Utes. There’s plenty of blind faith in Kyle Whittingham’s program, but this season may be the one that tests how much of Utah’s long-term success was tied directly to him. If a roster that looks roughly on par talent-wise with many of Whittingham’s teams wins nine or 10 games, that tells you something important.
Arizona State comes in sixth after Kenny Dillingham named Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley the starting quarterback. That decision wasn’t exactly a shock, and Dillingham already proved last season he can win with far less at quarterback than most teams would want. If he could get it done with Jeff Sims, there’s reason to believe the Sun Devils can keep moving in the right direction.
Arizona is seventh, and Noah Fifita remains one of those rare college football players who feels like he’s been around forever. That kind of familiarity usually belongs to college basketball names like Aaron Craft, Perry Ellis, and Alex Karaban. Fifita’s 2026 season will be his last, and the Wildcats have enough to be a dark horse to reach Arlington.
TCU is eighth, and the setup around Sonny Dykes is already messy. The Dublin Curse could come back around after the Aer Lingus Classic, and the history for losers in that game has not been kind. Add in locker room fights, reporting leaks, and the challenge of getting Jaden Craig to look like a competent FBS quarterback, and it’s hard to feel great about where things stand.
Oklahoma State is ninth and opens the Eric Morris era with an in-state rivalry game against Tulsa. That’s the kind of matchup that can set the tone quickly, for better or worse.
The offense should be the side to watch because Morris should be able to manufacture points, but the defense is the part that needs immediate attention. Losing that one would be a bad way to start.
Baylor rounds out the list at No. 10, but this week gives the Bears a chance to learn a lot fast. Auburn comes to town in what looks like the best game in its time slot Saturday, and it’s a chance for Baylor to show where it really stands. The DJ Lagway redemption tour starts now.
In Other News...
Noah Fifita And Arizona Have One Thing To Prove In Opener
Arizona opens at Casino Del Sol Stadium in a familiar in-state meeting with Northern Arizona, the 20th all-time matchup between the programs. The Wildcats bring back a strong offense led by senior quarterback Noah Fifita and enter the game as the clear favorite, with this opener carrying the sort of expectations that come with a veteran group trying to set the tone right away.
Northern Arizona arrives with a win already on its ledger under coach Brian Wright, which gives the Lumberjacks at least some early confidence heading into a tougher stage. For Arizona, the bigger question is less about whether it should win and more about how cleanly it can handle business in front of a home crowd while showing the kind of sharp start this team believes it can make. [Read more 🡒]
Arizonas Opener Will Reveal Which Wildcats Are Ready To Break Through
Arizona opens its third season under Brent Brennan with a familiar kind of measuring-stick game, one that should tell the Wildcats plenty about where they stand early and which players are ready to take the next step. Noah Fifita remains the clear centerpiece on offense, and the opener against Northern Arizona also puts a spotlight on names like wide receiver Giovanni Richardson, along with a few newcomers and depth pieces whose camp work has made them worth watching closely.
Northern Arizona brings its own familiar threats, including running back Quran Gossett and defensive tackle Jackson Murray, so this is more than a tune-up for Arizona even if the gap in expectations is obvious. For the Wildcats, the real intrigue is which supporting players turn August momentum into September production, and which of them can turn a first-game opportunity into something bigger as the season starts to take shape. [Read more 🡒]
Arizona Opens With One Big Noah Fifita Question
Arizona heads into its 2026 opener against Northern Arizona at Casino Del Sol Stadium with plenty of continuity and plenty left to prove. The Wildcats are bringing back more than half of their starters from a 9-4 season, while also blending in newcomers and first-time starters, including transfers and freshmen, as the roster starts to take shape around another run.
At the center of it all is Noah Fifita, who is closing in on school records and is being talked about as a Heisman Trophy candidate. Even with that buzz, the early-season focus remains on the broader picture, because the staff has made clear that the opener is about getting the team ready to win rather than turning September into a personal showcase for its quarterback. [Read more 🡒]