Week 8 brought another shake-up in ESPN’s FPI ratings, and the computers had plenty to say about teams moving in opposite directions.
Boston College delivered one of the loudest jumps of the week by hanging 49 points on Georgia Tech in a 49-27 win. The Eagles are now 4-3, and ESPN’s numbers give them a 30.8% chance of getting to six wins and bowl eligibility.
Arizona made a similar statement after breaking into the AP top 25 and following it with a 39-3 rout of Iowa State. The Wildcats are 19.7% likely to reach the College Football Playoff, a number that fits the chaos at the top of the Big 12.
Cincinnati also got a meaningful boost after knocking off No. 8 Texas Tech. The Bearcats are 5-2, and while their Playoff odds are only 0.6%, the win likely keeps a solid bowl season on track.
Arizona State took care of Kansas State 28-17 and climbed as well. The Sun Devils still sit next to last in the Big 12, but their chances of getting to six wins and a bowl are up to 44.3%, which puts them just shy of a coin flip.
On the other side of the ledger, Virginia Tech’s situation keeps getting uglier. After a three-score loss to Boston College, the Hokies are now the ACC team least likely to reach a bowl, sitting at 0.2% to get to six wins. It has been a rough ride for a team that came into the year with bigger expectations.
Colorado took another hard hit after getting beaten 57-24 by Oklahoma State. Coach Prime’s team is now last in the Big 12, and at 2-5 the Buffs have just a 3.0% shot at six wins and a bowl game.
Iowa’s season also took a major turn in the wrong direction with a 13-10 loss to Minnesota. The Hawkeyes fell to 5-2, their Playoff chances dropped to 4.0%, and they slid into the middle of the Big Ten pack in the FPI behind teams like Penn State and Michigan.
In Other News...
Arizona Put Iowa State In A Spot No Big 12 Team Wants
Arizona set the tone immediately after the bye, and Iowa State spent the rest of the afternoon trying to climb out of the hole. The Wildcats scored on their first two possessions and carried a 25-3 lead into halftime, a fast start that put the Cyclones on their heels and made the rest of the game feel like an uphill battle from the outset.
The second half brought a change at quarterback for Iowa State, with Connor Moberly taking over for Jaylen Raynor, but the offense never found enough rhythm to threaten a comeback. Now the Cyclones have to turn the page quickly, because Oklahoma State is next on the schedule at home, and there is little margin for another slow start in Big 12 play. [Read more 🡒]
Arizona Faces Its Toughest Test Yet In Hostile Lubbock
Arizona heads into Lubbock with plenty on the line after a decisive win over Iowa State, and the Wildcats have earned a seat in the conversation at 6-1. Texas Tech is in the same position record-wise, but the setting changes everything. The Red Raiders have built a strong home winning streak at Galaxy Stadium, and oddsmakers have made them a 4.5-point favorite in a matchup that feels like one of the biggest measuring sticks on Arizonas schedule.
History does not offer much comfort for the Wildcats in this spot, either. Arizona has struggled badly in Lubbock over the years, and the trip has been one of the most difficult on the calendar for this program. Texas Tech is also trying to steady itself after a recent loss to Cincinnati that could matter in the playoff picture, which adds another layer to a game where both teams arrive with momentum, pressure and a lot still unresolved. [Read more 🡒]
Arizona Just Looked Like A Real Big 12 Threat
Arizonas jump into the Big 12 is starting to look a lot less like a transition year and a lot more like a team that belongs in the league race. The Wildcats rolled past Iowa State 39-3, stretched their winning streak to five games and kept climbing with a 6-1 record overall and 3-1 mark in conference play. Arizona piled up 477 total yards and flashed the kind of balance that can travel, with the offense moving the ball consistently and the special teams and defense both adding to a lopsided afternoon.
Noah Fifita was sharp throughout, directing an attack that never let Iowa State find much rhythm, while the defense kept the Cyclones out of the end zone and turned the game into a one-sided showcase. What stood out most for Arizona was how complete it looked in all three phases, the kind of performance that can change the conversation around a team in midseason. The question now is whether this level of play can carry over into the bigger tests still ahead on the Big 12 schedule. [Read more 🡒]