Greg McElroy thinks Saturday in Lubbock could send the Big 12 standings into another spin.
The ESPN analyst is backing No. 22 Arizona to walk into Texas Tech and leave with a 28-27 win, a call he made on his Always College Football podcast ahead of the noon ET kickoff. If that plays out, the Red Raiders would absorb a second straight loss and the conference title picture would tighten fast.
“I just think Arizona’s passing attack is playing a little bit better right now than what we’ve seen so far from the Red Raiders,” McElroy said.
Texas Tech is trying to steady itself after a rough 37-24 loss at Cincinnati. In that game, Bearcats running back Cole Tabb piled up a career-high 173 rushing yards, and the Red Raiders were flagged 12 times. McElroy didn’t sugarcoat what he saw, calling it “bad football” and noting that the defense “gave up a ton of rushing yards.”
Joey McGuire sounded just as frustrated after the loss. “We played about as bad as we could play,” the Texas Tech coach said.
Arizona, meanwhile, has spent the last month stacking wins and confidence. The Wildcats beat Cincinnati 34-7 on Oct. 3, holding the Bearcats to just 74 rushing yards, and then followed that with a 39-3 blowout of Iowa State. In that game, Noah Fifita completed 27 of 34 passes for 308 yards and two touchdowns, while Isaiah Mizell broke things open early with a 71-yard touchdown on the second play from scrimmage.
Still, McElroy made clear he wasn’t interested in using the common opponent as some kind of easy shortcut.
“The transitive property has never won a game ever because it isn’t a player,” he said.
What McElroy sees with Arizona is an offense that gets the ball out quickly and accurately, then lets receivers turn routine throws into bigger gains after the catch. That approach, in his view, collides with a Texas Tech defense that is built around waiting for mistakes and turning them into takeaways.
“Tech’s whole defensive identity is they’ll give up the 6-yard completion, but they’re going to wait for the throw that hangs,” McElroy said. “And Fifita doesn’t hang very many.”
Texas Tech does have one obvious weapon in J’Koby Williams, who McElroy believes can flip the field with a single missed tackle. The quarterback situation is the bigger worry. Sophomore Will Hammond struggled at Cincinnati, and McGuire addressed that inconsistency earlier this week.
“And then you go into the Cincinnati game, for whatever reason, we take a step back there,” McGuire said.
The league race is already crowded. Utah is now the Big 12’s lone unbeaten team after Texas Tech’s loss and BYU’s double-overtime defeat at UCF. Texas Tech, BYU and Arizona all sit at 3-1 in conference play.
McGuire said the setback has changed the way his team has to approach the rest of the regular season.
“We’ve turned this into a five-game season to where there’s not room for error,” he said.
Texas Tech has been in this spot before. Last season, the Red Raiders were also 6-1 after a loss at Arizona State, then ripped off six straight wins to grab the Big 12’s automatic playoff bid.
McElroy expects Texas Tech to create a turnover or two and thinks Williams will break off a few long runs. In the end, he says, the red zone may decide it.
“The team that settles for field goals probably can’t keep pace with the one that’s finishing drives in the end zone,” McElroy said.
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