Arizona Still in the Mix Despite Drop in Rankings, Eyes Big February to Regain Top Spot
Arizona may have slipped slightly in the latest KenPom and NCAA NET rankings, but make no mistake - the Wildcats are still firmly planted in the national title conversation. After Michigan picked up statement wins over previously unbeaten Nebraska and a top-10 Michigan State squad, Arizona dropped to second in both the KenPom and ESPN Basketball Power Index, and sits third in the NCAA NET Ratings. But the margins at the top are razor-thin, and the coming weeks could swing momentum back in the Wildcats’ favor.
Right now, there’s a clear top tier forming in college basketball’s advanced metrics, and it’s made up of Michigan, Arizona, and Duke. Those three programs have separated themselves from the rest of the field, at least as far as KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin is concerned - and the numbers back it up.
Michigan leads the country with a staggering +36.57 efficiency margin, followed closely by Arizona at +36.39 and Duke at +35.95. That’s a tight race at the top, but the drop-off after Duke is where things get interesting.
Iowa State, ranked fourth, sits at +32.01 - a full four points behind Duke. To put that into perspective, the gap between Duke and Iowa State is about the same as the one between Iowa State and Nebraska, which is all the way down at 12th.
That’s how wide the chasm is between the elite and the rest.
Rounding out the top eight in KenPom are Houston, Florida, Illinois, and Purdue. All of them are strong teams with legitimate credentials, but there’s a noticeable statistical dip after the top three.
The NCAA NET Ratings, which don’t publish efficiency margins but do track quadrant wins, tell a similar story. Arizona and Duke are the only teams with nine wins in Quadrant 1 - the toughest category of games.
Michigan isn’t far behind at 8-0 in Quad 1 matchups. The Wolverines’ only blemish this season?
A Quad 2 loss to Wisconsin. That’s an incredibly clean résumé, and it’s a big reason why Michigan has surged to the top of the analytics boards.
For Arizona, the good news is that there’s still plenty of runway left. And with the schedule the Wildcats are about to face, the opportunity to reclaim the top spot is very real.
After wrapping up a home game against Oklahoma State, Arizona enters a brutal four-game stretch that could define its season. It starts with a road trip to Kansas on February 9, followed by home games against Texas Tech (Feb. 14) and BYU (Feb. 18), before heading to Houston on February 21. Every one of those opponents is ranked inside the top 20 in both KenPom and the NET Ratings - meaning every game is a chance to boost the Wildcats’ profile.
It’s the kind of stretch that can either solidify Arizona as a true No. 1 seed or open the door for someone else to take that spot. But if the Wildcats can navigate that gauntlet successfully, they’ll be right back in the thick of the race for the top overall seed in March.
At this point in the season, it’s not just about where you stand - it’s about who you’ve beaten and how you’re trending. And while Michigan, Duke, and Arizona have created separation at the top, the next month will tell us a lot about how this elite trio stacks up heading into tournament time.
One thing is clear: Arizona controls its own destiny. With high-profile matchups on the horizon and a résumé already packed with quality wins, the Wildcats have every chance to climb back to the top.