At the halfway mark of the Big 12 schedule, Arizona has planted its flag at the top of the standings-and so far, no one's been able to knock it loose. The Wildcats are a perfect 9-0 in conference play, and while the road ahead is anything but easy, they’ve put themselves in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 regular season crown.
But they’re not cruising to the finish line just yet. Houston, Iowa State, and Kansas are still very much in the hunt, and each of them has a path-albeit narrow-to challenge Arizona down the stretch.
The Contenders: Who Can Catch Arizona?
Houston sits just a game back at 8-1, right on Arizona’s heels. The Cougars have been steady, disciplined, and tough on both ends of the floor.
And here’s where it gets interesting: they’ll get their shot at Arizona head-to-head on February 21, when the Wildcats come to town. That matchup could very well decide the regular season title and is already shaping up to be the Big 12 Game of the Year.
Kansas and Iowa State, both sitting at 7-2 in league play, are tied for third and still within striking distance. Kansas, in particular, has a pair of chances to make noise against the Wildcats.
Arizona heads to Allen Fieldhouse on February 9-a game that promises to be electric-and then the Jayhawks travel to Tucson on February 28. If Kansas can take both of those games and get a little help (namely, a Houston stumble), they’ve got a real shot at grabbing the top seed in the Big 12 Tournament.
Iowa State’s path is a little trickier, but don’t count the Cyclones out. They’ve got Arizona on the schedule too, traveling to Tucson for the second-to-last game of the regular season. To force a share of the title, Iowa State would need to win that one and hope both Arizona and Houston drop another game somewhere along the way.
Beyond those four, the rest of the conference is looking up. Every other Big 12 team already has at least three conference losses, making it a steep climb to get back into contention.
Arizona’s Gauntlet: The Road Ahead
Arizona’s schedule isn’t doing them any favors. After hosting Oklahoma State this weekend, the Wildcats enter a brutal four-game stretch, starting with a trip to Kansas on Monday. From there, it’s home games against ranked Texas Tech (Feb. 14) and BYU (Feb. 18), followed by that massive showdown at Houston.
And the challenges don’t stop there. Arizona still has to go to Baylor on February 24 and wraps up the regular season at Colorado on March 7. That’s six games against teams with legitimate tournament aspirations, and any slip-up could open the door for Houston, Iowa State, or Kansas to pounce.
According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, Arizona is projected to finish the season with 28.8 wins and just 2.2 losses overall, including 15.8 wins and 2.2 losses in Big 12 play. So the numbers still favor the Wildcats-but projections don’t play the games.
Betting Odds Reflect the Race
FanDuel Sportsbook has Arizona as the favorite to win the Big 12 at -195, reflecting both their current lead and their high ceiling. Houston checks in at +270, with Iowa State at +850 and Kansas at +1400. After that, the odds drop off a cliff-Texas Tech is next at +8000, with BYU way back at +40000.
Bottom Line: It’s Arizona’s Title to Lose-But It’s Far From Over
Arizona’s been the class of the Big 12 so far, but the next few weeks will tell us whether they can finish what they started. Houston, Kansas, and Iowa State all have chances to shake up the standings, and with so many head-to-head matchups still to come, the Big 12 race is far from settled.
Buckle up. This conference battle is just heating up.