After making program history on Monday by becoming the unanimous No. 1 team in both major polls, Arizona is holding firm atop the latest NCAA Tournament projections. In Joe Lunardi’s updated Bracketology released Tuesday, the Wildcats are not just a No. 1 seed-they’re the top overall seed, slotted into the West Region.
It’s a position that reflects both Arizona’s dominance this season and the respect it’s earned nationally. And if the bracket holds, the Wildcats’ road to the Final Four would begin in San Diego, where they’re projected to open against Navy, currently leading the Patriot League with a 13-6 overall record and a 5-1 mark in conference play.
Navy, projected as a 16-seed, hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1998. The Midshipmen have made 11 appearances in the Big Dance, holding an 8-12 all-time record. While Arizona has never faced Navy, they do have some history with the other potential teams in their subregional.
Lunardi’s projection places Utah State as the 8-seed and Saint Mary’s as the 9-seed in the West Region. Both programs are having strong seasons-Utah State sits at 15-2, while Saint Mary’s is 17-3-and would be in the field as at-large bids if the tournament started today.
Arizona is 5-2 all-time against Saint Mary’s, but just 1-3 against Utah State. That said, the Wildcats haven’t played either team this season, so any potential matchup would bring a fresh dynamic.
If this subregional plays out in San Diego as projected, the winner of that four-team pod would stay put for the West Regional. That’s a rare bit of geographical luck for Arizona, which could potentially make a deep run without ever leaving the West Coast. The 2026 Final Four, meanwhile, is set for Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Zooming out to the rest of the West Region, Lunardi has Virginia as the 4-seed and Alabama as the 5-seed. Arizona fans will remember the Wildcats already saw Alabama earlier this season-and handled business with a convincing 96-75 win in Birmingham. That’s a result that could loom large if the two teams meet again in March.
The rest of the West is loaded with big names. Gonzaga is the projected 2-seed, Michigan State slots in at No.
3, Tennessee is the 6-seed, and Iowa rounds out the top half as the 7-seed. That’s a gauntlet of programs with deep tournament pedigrees-exactly what you’d expect in a region headlined by the No. 1 overall seed.
Looking across the full bracket, Lunardi has Michigan as the second overall seed and the top team in the Midwest Region. Reigning national champion Connecticut is the projected No. 1 in the South, while Duke holds the top line in the East.
Conference strength is on full display in this projection. The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the field, followed by the Big Ten with nine and the ACC with eight. The Big 12 sends seven, including a strong showing from Houston (2-seed), Iowa State (3), BYU and Texas Tech (both 4-seeds), Kansas (5), and Central Florida (8).
As for Arizona’s other opponents this season, Florida is tracking as a 3-seed, and Auburn is projected at No. 8-giving the Wildcats a schedule that’s not just challenging, but tournament-tested.
There’s still a long way to go between now and Selection Sunday, but if these projections are any indication, Arizona is not only in the driver’s seat-they’re steering toward something special.