College football delivered plenty of chaos in Week 8, and the upset board came through nicely. Two of the three underdogs in the previous week’s picks cashed outright, with Minnesota taking down Iowa and UCF knocking off BYU.
Now the focus shifts to Week 9, where there are three spots that stand out as worth a look for outright upset value.
Arizona is the one that jumps off the page first. Texas Tech’s loss to Cincinnati last week exposed a team that may not be as strong as the market believes.
The Red Raiders do sit just ahead of Arizona in adjusted net EPA per play, 25th to 27th, but the Wildcats have the edge where it matters more in this matchup: net success rate. Arizona ranks 14th nationally in that category, while Texas Tech is 32nd.
The offensive profile adds to the case against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech’s attack has been average at best and sits outside the top 50 in nearly every major metric.
Arizona, meanwhile, brings one of the country’s best passing games to the table, checking in fourth in EPA per pass. That combination makes Arizona look like the side getting shorted by the line.
Northwestern is another team that looks undervalued. The Wildcats have quietly stayed in the mix, and this number appears bigger than it should be.
Their main vulnerability has been against the run, but that’s not much of a problem here because Oregon has been one of the least effective rushing offenses in the country, ranking 117th in EPA per rush and 114th in rush success rate. That matchup leans heavily toward Northwestern winning outright.
The last play is Clemson, where the spread feels inflated enough to make the moneyline appealing. The gap between the Tigers and Florida State simply isn’t large enough to support a 6-point number.
Clemson enters at 51st in net adjusted EPA per play and 91st in net success rate. Florida State is close behind in the first metric at 52nd, but slips to 106th in net success rate.
Clemson’s defense also gives it a real path here. The Tigers have been excellent on that side of the ball, ranking eighth in college football in opponent EPA per play. As road underdogs, they’re live to win this one outright.
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Arizona Suddenly Has A Real Chance To Shake Up The Big 12
Greg McElroy is seeing a real opening for Arizona as it heads into a pivotal Big 12 matchup with No. 13 Texas Tech. The Wildcats have won five straight and their passing game has looked sharper as the season has gone along, which has changed the feel around a team that is suddenly sitting in the thick of the conference race. With both clubs tied at 3-1 in Big 12 play, this one carries the kind of late-season weight that can reshape the standings in a hurry.
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Texas Tech is getting some help back in the backfield, and Arizona will have to account for a Red Raiders team that has been one of the leagues more disruptive opponents. Coaches on both sides have pointed to the depth of the conference and the way big individual performances can swing these matchups, which is a reminder that this is less about early-season momentum than about who can hold up when the schedule tightens. For Arizona, the challenge is to keep the surge going against a contender that is built to punish mistakes. [Read more 🡒]
Former Arizona Players Are Suddenly All Over The College Basketball Map
Arizonas offseason churn has turned the Wildcats into one of the more interesting transfer-portal stories in the country, with the roster taking on a very different look as new faces arrive and familiar names move on. Derek Dixon and JJ Mandaquit are part of the incoming group, and RJ Godfrey remains a possibility pending eligibility, giving Tommy Lloyds program a fresh layer of intrigue as it tries to piece together next seasons rotation.
The ripple effect has been just as noticeable on the other side, where several former Wildcats have already surfaced at new Division I stops and begun carving out roles for themselves. The list includes Anderson, Aristode, Borovicanin, Djopmo, Gueye and KJ Lewis, a reminder that Arizonas portal activity is not just reshaping Tucson but scattering ex-Wildcats across the college basketball map in a way that could keep bringing this story back into view all season. [Read more 🡒]