Arizona may have taken its first loss of the season in a tightly contested battle with Kansas, but it hasn’t shaken their standing in the eyes of bracket experts. As of Tuesday’s updated ESPN Bracketology, the Wildcats are still holding strong as the projected No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Despite the 82-78 setback on Monday night, Arizona remains atop the West Region in Joe Lunardi’s latest projections. That’s a testament to the body of work they’ve put together so far this season - and a sign that one loss, even to a blue-blood like Kansas, isn’t enough to derail their tournament trajectory.
Lunardi has Arizona opening their March Madness run against 16th-seeded Harvard, a matchup with a bit of personal flair. Arizona reserve guard Evan Nelson would face off against his former team, adding an extra layer of intrigue to what’s typically a one-sided affair between a No. 1 and No.
- These two programs actually met once before in the tournament, back in 2013, when Arizona took down Harvard in the second round.
If the bracket holds, that first-round game would tip off in San Diego, with the winner advancing to face either No. 8 Texas A&M or No.
9 SMU. That’s a tricky mini-pod - both A&M and SMU have the kind of physicality and tempo control that can make things uncomfortable for a top seed in the Round of 32.
But Arizona’s depth and versatility would still make them the clear favorite to emerge from that grouping.
Looking further down the West Region, things only get more interesting. Gonzaga and Alabama are currently slotted as the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds, respectively, and would potentially await Arizona in the Sweet 16.
The Wildcats already own wins over Alabama and Florida this season - the latter being the projected No. 3 seed on the opposite side of the West bracket. That head-to-head success could give Arizona a psychological edge if those matchups materialize.
Nebraska, a program that’s been climbing steadily under its current regime, is pegged as the No. 2 seed in the West. While they haven’t shared the court with Arizona this season, their physical frontcourt and defensive identity could pose a challenge if they meet in San Jose for a spot in the Final Four.
Elsewhere in the Bracketology update, Connecticut, Duke, and Michigan round out the remaining No. 1 seeds. Michigan, notably, is ranked ahead of Arizona in several advanced metric systems, despite the Wildcats’ stronger resume in terms of quality wins.
The Big 12 continues to flex its depth, with seven teams projected to earn tournament bids. Houston and Iowa State are both in as No. 2 seeds, while Kansas lands as a No. 3 following its win over Arizona.
Texas Tech (No. 4), BYU (No. 6), and UCF (No. 9) round out the Big 12 representation, reinforcing just how brutal that conference slate has been this year.
Arizona’s potential tournament path could also intersect with some familiar faces. Auburn (No. 8 seed in the Midwest), UCLA (No. 10 in the Midwest), and San Diego State (No. 11 seed in the First Four) are all teams the Wildcats have seen or will see this season.
There’s even a nod to their preseason schedule, with St. Mary’s - who Arizona beat in an exhibition - currently projected as a No. 10 seed in the South.
All told, the Wildcats are still in the driver’s seat for a top seed, even with Monday’s loss. Their resume is loaded, their rotation is deep, and their potential tournament path, while filled with landmines, is navigable. March is still weeks away, but Arizona is exactly where it wants to be - right at the top, with everything still in front of them.