Iowa State arrives in Tucson with a résumé that’s easy to misread if you only glance at the record. The Cyclones are 3-3 overall and 1-2 in the Big 12, but every loss has come against a ranked opponent: No.
15 Iowa, No. 10 Utah and No.
2 BYU. That was the backdrop for a conversation with Jack Christensen of SB Nation sister site Wide Right & Natty Lite, who offered a sharp read on what Arizona is getting for Homecoming.
Christensen gave Iowa State a “B” for its first half, saying the results need to be viewed through the lens of the schedule. He pointed to Aiden Flora as one of the biggest bright spots and said the defense has shown an ability to “bow up in critical moments.” The concerns, in his view, have been offensive inconsistency without a true No. 1 receiver and a defensive line that has not lived up to expectations without a healthy Caden Crawford.
The quarterback situation has also shaped the season. Jaylen Raynor arrived after throwing for more than 8,500 yards and accounting for 67 total touchdowns in three seasons at Arkansas State, but his production with the Cyclones has not matched that level.
Christensen said that comes down to several factors: a new system under first-year offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, a different group of weapons and a major leap in competition from the Sun Belt to the Big 12. He also noted that Dominic Overby is out for the season after going down in Provo.
Still, Christensen believes Raynor can handle the job. “We have not seen the best version of Jaylen Raynor yet in Ames and that is either concerning or exciting depending on how you look at it.”
Flora, meanwhile, has become the centerpiece of the offense. After his five-touchdown outing against West Virginia, he’s now third in the Big 12 in rushing.
Christensen said he was the first player Jimmy Rogers put on scholarship after arriving in Ames, and that move has already paid off. He described Flora as a physical runner with good instincts who gets stronger as games go on, calling him “the engine of this offense.”
On the other side of the ball, Iowa State’s best chance to create problems for Arizona comes from its pass rush. Christensen said the defense works best when it can force quick decisions, and he singled out edge rushers Isaac Terrell and Caden Crawford as the names to know.
Crawford could return from injury this week, and if he does, Christensen said the line becomes “a genuinely dangerous unit.” He also highlighted linebacker Sullivan Schlimgen, who followed Rogers from Washington State to Ames and has been one of the roster’s most dependable players.
The plan against Noah Fifita, Christensen said, is to throw off his timing early and keep him from settling into his first read.
Rogers’ long-term stay in Ames came up too, and Christensen acknowledged the obvious concern. If Rogers succeeds, other programs will eventually come calling, just as they did with Matt Campbell.
But he also pointed to Campbell’s nine-year run and said Iowa State’s challenge is to give Rogers the tools to keep building. He mentioned the extension for men’s basketball coach TJ Otzelberger through 2036 as evidence the administration is willing to invest, and said the new athletic director’s press conference was promising because “He wants to win and will hopefully do a lot to keep Rogers around if he continues to trend up.”
As for the game itself, Christensen landed on Arizona, but not comfortably. He called it a tough spot for Iowa State to win at home on Homecoming with Fifita healthy, then settled on a 31-24 Wildcats victory. Even so, he warned that Flora could easily turn the night into a grind and make things “very uncomfortable” in the fourth quarter.
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