Texas Tech’s unbeaten start is gone, and now Saturday against Arizona suddenly looks like one of those games that can steer the rest of the Big 12 race.
The Red Raiders came into the season with plenty of noise around them, fueled in part by the massive attention on the program and billionaire booster Cody Campbell’s money behind the operation. That helped make Texas Tech a magnet for transfer talent, even if the whole thing also produced the messy Brendan Sorsby episode before he ever played a snap. Sorsby left Cincinnati for Tech, was later revealed to have bet on college sports, got banned by the NCAA, was reinstated, and then exited the program anyway.
Even with all that baggage, Texas Tech reached last week undefeated before the loss that dropped it to No. 13 in the AP poll and into a tie for second place in the Big 12, alongside Arizona among others. That is why Saturday feels like an unofficial elimination game in the conference title hunt.
To get a better read on the Red Raiders, we turned to Seth Jungman of Staking the Plains, who gave a blunt assessment of where Texas Tech stands right now.
For Jungman, the first loss was less of a surprise than a reveal. He said Texas Tech fans had seen the warning signs already, even if the broader national conversation had not.
In his view, the offense has not been very good, the defense has slipped from last season’s level, and the team no longer has the kind of front-seven chaos that made last year’s defense such a headache for opponents. He pointed specifically to Jacob Rodriguez, David Bailey and Romello Height, saying the ability to get after the quarterback was the “cheat code” last year and is no longer showing up in the same way.
The quarterback situation remains part of the story, too. Will Hammond was not the staff’s first choice, and Jungman said Texas Tech clearly knew that when it went after Brendan Sorsby.
He gave Hammond credit for leadership and competitiveness, but said his biggest issue is decision-making in the moment. In Jungman’s view, Hammond sometimes tries the low-percentage shot instead of taking the safer play that keeps a drive alive.
Texas Tech may also be getting help back in the backfield. Jungman said he thinks Cameron Dickey has a very good chance to return after about four weeks with a high-ankle sprain, adding that he had been out doing drills this past week.
If Dickey is available, Jungman expects the Red Raiders to return to the Dickey-J’Koby Williams rotation. Williams has run for 680 yards and five touchdowns, and Jungman described Dickey as the bruising inside runner while Williams is the one who can make a broken play turn into a 40-yard gain.
Quinten Joyner, coming off ACL surgery, has filled in but not at the same level, according to Jungman.
The matchup with Arizona also puts Texas Tech’s defense under the microscope. The Red Raiders are second in FBS with 13 interceptions, but they have also allowed 16 touchdown passes and sit third-worst in the Big 12 in pass defense.
Jungman thinks Noah Fifita is set up to have a big day anyway. He praised Fifita’s consistency, noting that the quarterback has nearly identical home and road production, with three road interceptions and just one at home, plus nearly 300 passing yards per game.
Fifita’s running ability, Jungman said, only makes him harder to defend.
He also listed the Arizona players Texas Tech has to worry about most on defense. Defensive tackle AJ Holmes drew the strongest praise, and Jungman called the linebacking group of Ben Roberts, John Curry and Austin Romaine “incredibly solid.” He also mentioned cornerback Brice Pollock as a player who can make plays even while the pass defense has some issues.
Asked whether the season is on the line given the money poured into the roster and the attention surrounding the program, Jungman did not dodge the question. He said the team is “a quarterback short of maybe what it could have been,” and added that while he has tried not to get caught up in the offseason drama, the Sorsby situation still lingers. In his view, Sorsby would have made a meaningful difference.
Still, Jungman believes Texas Tech should respond better than it did against Cincinnati. He expects a tighter, more competitive game, but he also pointed out that Arizona’s defense is legitimate and that the Red Raiders’ offense has mostly looked good only against weaker defenses so far. Both sides of the ball, he said, have plenty to prove.
As for the final call, Jungman sees a close one. He noted that Vegas has Texas Tech favored by 3.5 and said he agrees with the idea that the Red Raiders can win, but he’d take Arizona and the points. His score prediction: Texas Tech 37, Arizona 34.
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