The stakes are rising in the Big XII, and Saturday’s clash between Arizona and Houston has all the makings of a heavyweight showdown. Andy Katz of NCAA.com has this one pegged as the fourth-best game of the week, and it’s easy to see why. These are two teams with serious March aspirations, and with the regular season winding down, every possession is starting to feel a little more meaningful.
Let’s start with Houston. The Cougars are rolling into the week on a six-game win streak, and they’ll look to keep that momentum alive Monday at Iowa State before turning their attention to Arizona.
Kelvin Sampson’s squad has done more than just win - they’ve climbed the rankings, leapfrogging Arizona in both the AP Top 25 and the USA Today Coaches Poll. Houston now sits at No. 4 in both, while Arizona holds the same spot - fourth - in the metrics-heavy rankings.
But here’s where it gets interesting: Arizona actually edges Houston in most of the advanced analytics, except for Bart Torvik and ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI). So while the polls favor Houston, the deeper numbers still give Arizona some love. That tug-of-war between eye test and efficiency metrics makes this matchup even more intriguing.
Recent history? It favors Houston in a big way.
The Cougars lead the all-time series 8-6 and have taken the last three meetings, including a pair of wins during the 2024-25 season and a memorable victory in the 2022 NCAA Tournament South Regional Semifinals down in San Antonio. The Wildcats haven’t cracked the code on Houston’s defense in a while, and they’ll need to find some answers fast if they want to flip the script this time around.
Arizona, for its part, is looking to get back on track. After dropping two straight, the Wildcats have a chance to reset Wednesday against BYU before heading into the weekend’s marquee matchup. They’re still firmly in the Big XII title hunt, sitting second in the standings at 10-2, just behind Houston’s 11-1.
The ESPN BPI gives Houston a 65% chance to win Saturday’s game, and while no betting lines have been posted yet, the Cougars are currently the odds-on favorite to win the Big XII at -165, per FanDuel Sportsbook. ESPN’s simulations back that up, projecting Houston to finish the conference slate with 15.4 wins and 2.6 losses.
Arizona isn’t far behind, though. The Wildcats are listed at +270 to win the conference and carry a 33% chance to take the Big XII crown, according to ESPN BPI projections.
Their simulated finish? 14.3 wins and 3.7 losses - just a game off Houston’s pace.
So here we are: two top-five teams, two elite programs, and one game with major implications for conference standings, NCAA Tournament seeding, and maybe even bragging rights that stretch beyond this season. Houston’s defense, Arizona’s offensive firepower, the recent history, the advanced metrics - it’s all converging in what should be one of the best games of the week.
Circle it, highlight it, set your reminders. Arizona at Houston is the kind of late-season matchup that reminds us why college basketball in February hits different.