Arizona is back in Big 12 mode, and Saturday night brings a first-time visitor to Tucson with a lot of momentum. The Wildcats are 3-1 overall and 0-1 in league play after dropping their conference opener at BYU in Week 2, while Cincinnati arrives at 4-0 and 1-0 after matching its best start since 2021. For Arizona, the task is clear: avoid an 0-2 start in the conference and keep pace in the chase for a spot in the Big 12 championship race.
The Bearcats have done plenty right through four games. They’re averaging more than 40 points per game, they have not thrown an interception, and they’ve lost only two fumbles.
They also bring a rushing attack that has powered them to 16 rushing touchdowns, third-most in the country. But this is also Cincinnati’s first road game away from home, and it comes with an 11 p.m. local time kickoff in the desert.
That’s the setup behind a split staff forecast, with every pick leaning Arizona but by different margins.
Kim Doss sees a 31-28 Wildcats win, pointing to Cincinnati’s ball security and Arizona’s own turnover issues, but also to the reality of the Bearcats making their first true road trip across the country. Doss notes that both teams sit in the 40s in scoring defense and are allowing around 20 points per game, which suggests a tight game if Cincinnati keeps playing to form.
Ezra Amacher has Arizona taking it 34-30 in a game that should bring plenty of offense. He highlights the Bearcats’ scoring streak and their ability to run the ball, but says the Wildcats’ offense will need to capitalize in the red zone and create enough separation against a Cincinnati team that keeps coming.
Adam Green likes Arizona 27-20, calling it a fascinating matchup because the Wildcats are at home, probably more talented, and playing late. He expects Cincinnati’s run game to shorten the game with longer drives and fewer possessions, though he also says an early Arizona lead could change the feel of things fast.
Juan Serrano projects a 35-27 Arizona win and centers the game on Cincinnati’s ground attack against the Wildcats’ run defense. He says Arizona has been improved against the run outside of BYU, and believes the Wildcats’ offense can stretch the field with Noah Fifita and pass-catchers Tre Spivey, Caleb Smith, and others while also leaning on a stronger late-game run game from Ismail Mahdi, Quincy Craig, and Kedrick Reescano. Serrano also notes Brent Brennan is 0-2 in “Family Weekend” games, but thinks that changes Saturday.
Brandon Combs has Arizona winning 31-21, arguing that Cincinnati’s offense is not especially balanced and that Arizona has been solid against the run. He says the Wildcats need to avoid another slow start and keep Cincinnati from controlling the clock if the Bearcats get ahead.
Brian Pedersen rounds out the predictions with Arizona 34-27, saying both teams have had to recover from early deficits this season and will be desperate to start fast. He points to Cincinnati’s run game as the key challenge, but says the body-clock factor of the late start should help the Wildcats. If Arizona protects the ball and finds some balance, Pedersen believes it will move to 4-1 for the first time since 2018.
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