With the latest NCAA Tournament projections rolling in, Arizona fans have plenty to be excited about. In ESPN’s newest Bracketology update, the Wildcats are pegged as the No. 2 overall seed and the top team in the West Region - a nod to their dominant start and current No. 1 spot in the AP Top 25. While Michigan holds the top overall seed in the field, Arizona’s positioning sets them up for a potentially favorable path through March.
Let’s break it down.
Arizona’s Road Starts in San Diego
If the tournament tipped off today, Arizona would open its postseason journey in San Diego, facing off against 16-seed Long Island - the projected Northeast Conference champion. It’s the kind of first-round matchup you’d expect for a top seed, but things could get interesting quickly in the second round.
Waiting in the wings would likely be either SMU (No. 8 seed) or Indiana (No. 9), both capable squads that could push Arizona early. Indiana brings Big Ten toughness and tournament pedigree, while SMU has quietly built a resume that’s turned heads down the stretch.
Potential West Region Gauntlet
The deeper you go into the West Region, the more intriguing it gets. Arizona’s potential Sweet 16 opponents?
Arkansas and Texas Tech, projected as the four and five seeds, respectively. Both programs are known for their physicality and defensive intensity - exactly the kind of teams that can muddy the waters for a high-octane offense like Arizona’s.
From there, the road could run through San Jose and possibly a showdown with Purdue, the projected No. 2 seed, or Louisville, slotted in at No. 3. Purdue’s size and interior presence could pose a unique challenge, while Louisville’s athleticism and tempo would make for a fast-paced, high-stakes battle.
Familiar Faces in the West
Arizona won’t be the only Big XII presence in the West. Oklahoma State - now a conference rival - is projected as the 10 seed.
That’s a matchup to keep an eye on, not just for potential tournament implications, but because the two teams are set to clash in the regular season on February 7 in Tucson. Arizona also hosts Texas Tech on February 14, giving them a potential look at a future tournament opponent before the madness begins.
Auburn (No. 6 seed) and Georgia (No. 7) round out the middle of the West Region, adding even more depth to a bracket that’s shaping up to be one of the most competitive.
Big XII Flexes Its Muscle
Arizona’s rise in Bracketology is just one part of a bigger story - the Big XII is absolutely loaded this year. Five teams from the conference are currently projected as top-four seeds, with Iowa State leading the South as a No. 1, BYU as the No. 2 in that same region, and Kansas and Houston slotted as four seeds in the Midwest and East, respectively.
In total, 10 Big XII teams are in the projected field, tying the Big Ten for the most in the tournament. That includes Arizona State, Baylor, and Central Florida, all of whom are currently projected to play in the First Four in Dayton. It’s a testament to the league’s depth and the night-in, night-out grind it takes to survive conference play.
Non-Conference Tests Still Loom Large
Arizona’s non-conference schedule continues to carry weight in the eyes of the selection committee. Connecticut, a projected No. 2 seed in the East, Florida (No. 5 in the Midwest), Alabama (No. 3 in the East), and UCLA (No. 10 in the South) all help bolster the Wildcats’ strength of schedule. These early-season matchups are proving to be more than just resume builders - they’re measuring sticks for how Arizona stacks up against the best in the country.
What It All Means
We’re still months away from Selection Sunday, but the early signs are clear: Arizona is not just a top team - they’re a legitimate national title contender. Their projected path won’t be easy, but that’s March. The Wildcats have the talent, depth, and experience to make a deep run, and if they keep playing like they have, they could be cutting down nets come April.
For now, though, all eyes are on the road ahead - both in conference and in the bracket. And if this projection holds, the West Region could be the must-watch corner of the tournament.