When Arizona State and Baylor line up Saturday night in Tempe, it comes with a familiar setup: Kenny Dillingham and Dave Aranda have already lived through one razor-thin meeting apiece, and both ended with the game hanging in the balance.
The first one came back in 2019, when Dillingham was Auburn’s offensive coordinator and quarterback coach and Aranda was LSU’s defensive coordinator and linebacker coach. LSU, ranked No. 2, slipped past No.
9 Auburn 23-20. Then, 2,156 days later, the two were back on opposite sidelines in a Big 12 game, this time with Dillingham at Arizona State and Aranda at Baylor.
That one went the Sun Devils’ way on a game-winning field goal, 27-24 in Waco.
So the rematch feels like what the first two have been: a one-possession fight. The question now is what gives ASU the edge, and what drags it down.
One place Arizona State has not quite looked like itself is on the ground. After back-to-back seasons with NFL-bound backs in Raleek Brown in 2025 and Cam Skattebo in 2024, the Sun Devils are still waiting for a true rushing breakout in 2026.
They’re averaging 4.64 yards per carry, their lowest mark since 2023, when the team went 3-9. The offense is also down to 165 rushing yards per game after averaging at least 190 per game over the last two seasons.
That matters even more in a game like this, where every yard could shape field position and every stalled drive puts extra weight on the passing game. ASU has not yet found the kind of rhythm it needs there either.
Still, there is a path for the Sun Devils if the defense keeps creating problems. Arizona State had a strong turnover day in London against Kansas, and the Bears present a different kind of test.
ASU is third in the Big 12 in points allowed per game, fourth in rushing yards allowed, and third-to-last in sacks, but the pass defense has been the real bright spot. The Sun Devils are giving up just 161.3 passing yards per game, which ranks second in the conference.
That could matter against a Baylor offense that leans heavily on the pass and ranks fourth in the Big 12 in passing yards. More throws mean more chances for mistakes, and Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway has already shown that danger.
He has started only two games because of injury, but he has thrown an interception in each one. At Florida in 2025, he threw 14 picks, including three games with multiple interceptions.
If ASU can bait him into another rough night, that may be the swing point.
Arizona State also needs more from Omarion Miller. The Colorado transfer opened his Sun Devil career with an eight-catch, 102-yard performance and a touchdown against Morgan State, but since then he has managed only 12 catches for 47 yards over the last two games combined.
Dillingham said over the bye week that he would shoulder the blame for Miller’s usage, and the offense may need to revisit how it gets him involved. If Miller finally breaks through, that would give ASU another much-needed spark.
Special teams could tilt this thing too, and Baylor punter Palmer Williams is the name to watch. He arrives in Tempe with a strong resume and the kind of leg that can change field position in a hurry. If Arizona State keeps getting pinned deep, especially with its offense still searching for answers, that could quickly become a problem.
And then there’s Cutter Boley. The weather excuse from London is gone, and ASU’s quarterback will have to push the ball downfield against Baylor.
Boley went 11-for-23 for 95 yards against Kansas, and while Dillingham took some of the blame for the play-calling, the game still included missed throws and other errors that had nothing to do with the conditions. Baylor’s defense has been solid against the pass, allowing 209 passing yards per game, and it has already produced four interceptions while giving up only two passing touchdowns through four games, tied for the fewest in the Big 12.
If Boley can put together a cleaner, more aggressive performance, ASU has a shot. If he slips back into the turnover trouble he showed at Kentucky in 2025, when he had four multi-interception games, the Sun Devils are in trouble.
Mistakes have already burned Arizona State once this season. The loss at College Station featured a first-half muffed punt and an offense that vanished after halftime. The Kansas game in London almost turned the same way when ASU allowed a first-half punt-return touchdown, only for Jared Hamilton’s 100-yard kickoff return to start the second half to help offset it.
That’s the warning sign here: Baylor has shown it can punish errors. Colorado found that out in a 23-13 loss to the Bears. If ASU hands over field position, coughs up special teams mistakes, or gets reckless with trick plays like its failed fake punt against Texas A&M, it could end up with the same result.
Arizona State and Baylor kick off Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 p.m. AZ/10:30 p.m.
EST at Mountain America Stadium in Tempe. The game will air on ESPN, with Roy Philpott and Brock Osweiler on the call.
The Sun Devil Radio Network broadcast will air on Arizona Sports 98.7 FM, with Tim Healey on play-by-play, Jeff Van Raaphorst alongside him, and Kevin Turner reporting from the sideline.
In Other News...
ASU's Blowout Loss Exposed A Problem Fans Can't Ignore
Baylors 55-19 win over Arizona State did more than extend a four-game streak. It also offered a clear snapshot of an offense finding its footing, with quarterback DJ Lagway throwing a career-high four touchdowns while the running game and offensive line both took noticeable steps forward. The defense held up its end, too, making it a complete performance on a day the Bears looked much more balanced than they had earlier in the season.
For ASU, the loss came with plenty to sort through, especially because Baylors attack looked sharper and more varied under offensive coordinator Jake Spavital. The Sun Devils were left chasing a game that had already tilted hard in Baylors favor, and the margin only magnified the concerns fans have been raising about where this team stands after a result like this. [Read more 🡒]
ASU Suddenly Has An Identity Problem Kenny Dillingham Must Fix
Arizona States 55-19 loss to Baylor was more than just a rough Saturday, it was the kind of game that forces a team to take a hard look at what it is right now. The defeat was the Sun Devils largest margin since joining the Big 12, and it left Kenny Dillingham visibly frustrated afterward as his team tried to sort through a performance that never found much traction.
Cutter Boley was among the players acknowledging the mistakes and the need to get better, which is where the conversation turns for ASU heading into its final nonconference game against Hawaii. With conference play looming, the bigger issue is not just cleaning up one bad result, but figuring out how quickly this group can recover its footing and show a clearer identity. [Read more 🡒]
ASU Just Made Its Identity Problem Impossible To Ignore
Baylor junior quarterback DJ Lagway lit up Mountain America Stadium with a career-high four touchdown passes as the Bears rolled past Arizona State 55-19, and the Sun Devils never found a way to steady themselves. The offense sputtered from the start, with turnovers and dropped passes repeatedly interrupting any chance of building momentum, leaving a home crowd watching a game that quickly got away.
Arizona State now turns to Hawaii at home to open an eight-game stretch that will define the rest of the season, and the biggest concern is not just the final score but how many different issues showed up at once. The Sun Devils have plenty to clean up before that run begins, and after a performance like this, their identity questions are no longer hard to see. [Read more 🡒]