Kenny Dillingham isn’t exactly treating Colorado like a soft landing spot.
The Arizona State coach said his Sun Devils are staring at NFL talent on the Buffaloes’ roster, and the numbers from ESPN’s Football Power Index back up the idea that this matchup is tighter than Colorado’s 3-5 record might suggest. Ahead of the Nov. 7 meeting, the FPI paints a messy but intriguing picture for both teams.
Colorado’s most immediate problem is the long shot at a perfect finish. Even after snapping a five-game losing streak with an emotional 27-24 overtime win over Kansas State on Halloween, the Buffaloes have just a 1.2 percent chance of winning out and reaching 7-5.
But the more realistic path got a little brighter. ESPN’s model now gives Colorado an 11.1 percent chance of finishing 6-6, which would give Deion Sanders only his second bowl-eligible season in Boulder. That possibility is still alive because the Buffaloes survived against the Wildcats and because the schedule has started to tilt in their favor.
Colorado spent the first eight games running through a brutal stretch that included three ranked opponents before Halloween: Northwestern, which had been No. 20; Texas Tech, which was No. 15 in the College Football Playoff rankings released Nov. 3; and Utah, which checked in at No. 3 in the CFP.
Oklahoma State was also ranked briefly early in 2026, though it was unranked by the time Colorado played it on Oct. 24.
Now the road looks less punishing. The only ranked opponent left on Colorado’s schedule is No.
17 Houston, and that game comes to Folsom Field on Nov. 13.
Arizona State, meanwhile, is hardly in a comfortable spot either. The Sun Devils are 4-4 overall and 2-3 in Big 12 play, and they’re not exactly projected to sprint to the finish line.
ESPN’s FPI gives ASU only a 1.4 percent chance to win out. Still, the Sun Devils have a much better shot at bowl eligibility than Colorado does, with a 46.7 percent chance of reaching six wins.
They need two more victories to lock that up.
The conference numbers help explain why the models see these two teams in a similar neighborhood. Colorado sits 73rd overall in FPI and has the Big 12’s worst ranking among conference teams. Arizona State is not far ahead, landing 65th overall and 15th out of 16 in the league.
That’s a notable shift for a program that surged immediately after moving into the Big 12. Dillingham guided ASU to the conference title in its first season in 2024, which also came in his second year leading the program. Now both Dillingham and Sanders are coaching teams trying to claw their way to bowl eligibility, and the FPI suggests the gap between them is smaller than the records might first indicate.
In Other News...
Arizona State Suddenly Has A Much More Realistic CFP Path
The College Football Playoff has already gone from a four-team exclusive to a 12-team field, and the next shift is on the horizon after the 2026-27 season, when the bracket is set to grow again. For Arizona State, that matters because every expansion changes the math for programs outside the traditional top tier, especially in a Big 12 landscape where more teams can now see a clearer path into the postseason conversation.
The bigger field also brings the usual debate about what the playoff is becoming, with money driving much of the push and rankings likely to carry even more weight as the format keeps widening. For the Sun Devils, though, the immediate takeaway is simpler: the door is opening wider, and the odds of being part of the national picture are suddenly a lot more realistic than they were in the old system. [Read more 🡒]
ASU Puts Its Military Pride At Center Stage This Week
Arizona State is putting its military ties front and center this week with its annual Salute to Service, a campuswide stretch of events running from Nov. 6 to 16. The schedule is built to honor military members, veterans and their families, with activities ranging from a Friday evening workout to a veterans powwow, all leading into a football game that will include a flyover.
The effort also underscores how deeply military life is woven into the university community. ASU says it has more than 22,000 military-connected students and employs 700 veterans, a reminder that this is more than a ceremonial nod on the calendar. University leadership has made clear the support is meant to be sustained, not symbolic, even as the weeks biggest moments are still to come. [Read more 🡒]
ASU Already Faces An Early Test After A Frustrating Opener
Arizona State escaped its season opener with a win over East Tennessee State, but the performance did not match the standard the Sun Devils had set for themselves. Now the focus shifts quickly to Northern Colorado, a Big Sky contender that arrives with a legitimate challenge in preseason MVP Langston Reynolds and a roster that should test ASU in ways the opener did not.
For a team still trying to settle into its identity, this is the kind of early game that can reveal a lot about where the Sun Devils really stand. The matchup brings both pressure and opportunity, with ASU looking to clean up the issues that showed up in the opener while also proving it can handle a more polished opponent at home. [Read more 🡒]