The Diamondbacks’ season ended with a familiar kind of frustration: close enough to matter, not quite enough to cash in. For one observer, the path to the missed postseason can be broken into eleven pieces, with four of them carrying no real negative impact, three that cost roughly a win, and four that did the heavy damage.
The first point is the trade deadline, and even that comes with a twist. Derrick Hall said on Arizona Sports, “We can sit here and kick ourselves for the trade deadline and say we could have done more…” The Diamondbacks and Phillies were looking for the same kinds of upgrades at the deadline - starting pitching, relief help, and a left-handed bat - but Philadelphia was more aggressive, adding relievers Caleb Kilian and Brooks Raley, plus second baseman Luis Arraez. Arizona brought in Lars Nootbaar.
Even so, the argument here is that Nootbaar ended up making more of an impact than the Phillies’ three additions, and that the Diamondbacks’ deadline pickup was the only one of the group to perform above average.
Torey Lovullo is another name that lands on the “no negative impact” side of the ledger. Derrick Hall put it this way on Arizona Sports: “I know there are Torey critics out there, but look at the job he’s done…This year is probably his best year, even with his 2023 getting to the World Series. … He’s done a terrific, terrific job this year…” The view here is that this season brought more challenges than any of Lovullo’s previous years, and that he still came close to steering the club into the playoffs.
Ketel Marte’s time on the restricted list is also treated as a non-factor in the final result. Arizona dropped two of three during that stretch, but those losses are pinned on pitching that allowed 9 and 11 runs. The belief here is that Lovullo handled the situation well enough that it didn’t spill over into the standings.
The final item in that group is the 6-7 record against the Padres. The idea is that the last two losses of the season to San Diego drew blame, but the Padres are described as a strong team that belonged in the postseason anyway, so the head-to-head record is viewed as roughly what should have been expected even if Arizona had gotten in.
A few smaller issues are placed in the low-impact bucket. One is the Diamondbacks’ home results against the Rockies.
Colorado went 26-55 on the road, but managed 3 wins and 4 losses at Chase Field. If Chase had played like a neutral venue, the Rockies would have had one fewer win and Arizona one more.
The Padres’ 13 wins in 14 games from 6-20 September also mattered, because that surge pushed San Diego ahead of the Diamondbacks in the wild-card chase.
Then there’s first base, where the production simply wasn’t good enough. Arizona posted a negative 2.4 Wins Above Average at the position, and Ildemaro Vargas led the team there with 74 games.
He also appears to have shared the spot for much of the year. A fuller breakdown is promised in a later AZ Snake Pit article.
The real damage, though, comes in the high-impact category. The first big one is one-run games.
The Phillies lost 16 of them, while the Diamondbacks lost 21, a gap that is treated as worth five wins. Another way to see it: Philadelphia lost 39% of its one-run games, while Arizona lost 43%.
Injuries to starting pitchers in June and July also hit hard. Corbin Burnes tore his Teres Major around June, delaying his return until 8 September.
Ryne Nelson was out from 16 June to 16 September and came back as a reliever. Michael Soroka missed time from 20 June to 5 July, then returned with a worse ERA; Arizona lost five of seven games in that stretch.
Zac Gallen was out from 9 July to 7 September and also returned as a reliever.
The bullpen took its own toll, especially through heavy use of young arms. Jose Cabrera, 24, was tied to three losses on 27 June, 3 July and 26 September. Mitch Bratt, 22, was involved in two losses on 25 July and 11 August.
The last issue listed is the drop in performance from three batters, though the source stops short of naming them in the section provided. The overall conclusion is clear enough: the Diamondbacks missed the playoffs because several big problems lined up at once, and the losses in one-run games, the starting-pitcher injuries, the bullpen strain and the decline of key hitters did the most damage.
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