With the 2026 MLB season grinding through its final month, the playoff picture is only part of the drama. Around the league, a different kind of scoreboard is taking shape: who survives October, and who gets pushed toward the unemployment line.
A few managers are clearly in the safest lane. Others are hanging by a thread. And a couple are somewhere in between, with their fate likely tied to what happens over the next few weeks.
Craig Albernaz is one of the names worth watching in Baltimore. The Orioles changed managers after last season in hopes of sparking a rebound in 2026, but the wins haven’t really followed. Baltimore is still in the mix for the final American League playoff spot, though if the club misses the postseason and finishes below .500, Albernaz could end up paying for it in just his first year.
Aaron Boone’s name keeps coming up in these conversations, and it’s no surprise. He has been in charge of the Yankees since 2018, and the World Series trophy still hasn’t shown up.
Even so, the expectation is that he stays put. Boone is under contract through 2027, and New York is all but certain to get back to the playoffs.
Still, if the Yankees hand the division to the Rays and then flop in the first round, the speculation will start all over again.
Job status: Almost certainly safe
Joe Espada’s situation in Houston looks far shakier. The Astros have not been good, but they do sit atop the AL West, and Espada has done enough over his tenure to make the team play above its paper talent for long stretches.
The bigger issue may be what’s happening above him. Dana Brown is now former GM Dana Brown, and owner Jim Crane seems increasingly convinced he knows more than the baseball people around him.
Espada’s contract ends after the season, and that points toward a likely exit.
Job status: Almost certainly gone
Don Mattingly has given the Phillies a real jolt since taking over as interim manager 28 games into the season. Philadelphia is close to locking up a fifth straight playoff appearance, which makes his status one of the more interesting storylines on the board.
The question is whether the organization decides to keep him beyond this year. Some in the club are said to be looking at Alex Cora, but if Mattingly pushes the Phillies deep into October - even to the NLCS or beyond - moving on from him would be a tough sell.
Job status: Up in the air
In San Diego, Craig Stammen has steadied a roster that’s aging in spots and banged up in others. He’s probably safe, but not untouchable.
If the Padres miss the postseason for the first time since 2023, AJ Preller could decide to make a change and create some distance between himself and the blame. The final National League wild-card race may decide that one.
Job status: Probably safe
Torey Lovullo also has a lot riding on the next few weeks. He has a strong relationship with the Diamondbacks front office and already owns a pennant with Arizona, but the team is in danger of missing the playoffs for a third straight year.
Given the level of spending from ownership, that could invite some serious questions about the dugout. The D-backs-Padres fight for the third NL wild-card spot may end up carrying extra weight for him.
Job status: Probably safe
Dan Wilson’s first full season in Seattle has gone in the opposite direction from the expectations that came with last year’s Game 7 ALCS run. The Mariners entered 2026 with World Series hopes, but the season has turned into one of the franchise’s most frustrating in years.
Wilson has taken heat for how he has handled the bullpen, and the club’s poor baserunning also reflects on him. In a division with multiple managers sweating their futures, Wilson belongs firmly on the list.
Mark Kotsay is another manager whose job feels oddly unsettled. The Athletics were supposed to be in the fringe-contender conversation, but instead they’ve been awful, with the worst run differential in MLB by a mile.
Kotsay is under contract through 2028, which complicates things, but the A’s also recently parted ways with their longtime lead executive. Given how bad the season has been, it’s hard to make a clean read on his future.
Job status: Who can even tell at this point
The Royals are in last place, and Matt Quatraro’s club is headed toward a second straight losing season under his watch. That said, his contract runs through 2029, which makes him one of the more secure names on this list.
Kansas City still needs a rebound in 2027, but for now he looks likely to stay.
Job status: Probably fine
John Schneider’s path from pushing the Dodgers to the absolute brink in the World Series to staring at uncertainty again is a strange one, but Toronto’s 2026 season has been a disappointment. The Blue Jays are still alive in the race for the third AL wild-card spot, and that’s a low bar, but a real one.
If they get there, Schneider should be safe. If they don’t, the questions will come back fast, especially with his memory of being on thin ice before the 2025 season still fresh.
Job status: Probably safe
Kurt Suzuki’s first season with the Angels has been rough from the jump. Anaheim is on pace for the worst winning percentage in franchise history, and while that mess is not all on Suzuki, he’s certainly part of it.
The front office changed when former GM Perry Minasian - the man who hired him - was fired, and ownership has changed too. Suzuki is also working on a one-year contract, which does not exactly scream security.
Job status: Almost certainly gone
Tony Vitello’s transition to the Giants has had some early bumps, including a few embarrassing mistakes in the opening weeks after his unprecedented leap from college baseball to MLB. But the picture has improved, and Buster Posey has already said he wants Vitello back in the San Francisco dugout for 2027.
Whether Vitello wants that too is another question, but for now he appears to be in decent shape.
Job status: Probably safe
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