The Diamondbacks are entering the kind of September stretch where one good week can change everything - and one bad one can shove a team right out of the picture.
Arizona sits at 65-58, tied with the Phillies for the final National League Wild Card spot, one game behind the Padres and three ahead of the Marlins. With 39 games left, the margin is thin enough that a short injury scare or a rough patch from a key player can swing the whole race.
That’s why Brandon Pfaadt, Ketel Marte and Zac Gallen loom so large right now. Each one has a different job to do, and Arizona needs all three to go right if it’s going to hold its place in the chase.
The schedule doesn’t offer much breathing room, either. The Diamondbacks still have three games apiece left with the Phillies, Marlins and Padres, which gives them nine direct chances to gain ground on teams they’re fighting for the same postseason spot.
Pfaadt has become one of the most important reasons Arizona still feels alive in this race. He was sent to Triple-A Reno in early June after posting a 5.92 ERA in his first 13 appearances. Since coming back June 30, he has gone 7-0 with a 1.15 ERA in nine starts.
He backed that up Friday with seven scoreless innings in a 2-0 win over Atlanta. Pfaadt gave up two hits, struck out seven and didn’t walk a batter.
The Diamondbacks don’t need him to keep posting video-game numbers. They need the version that can give them length, settle the game down and keep the bullpen from getting overworked. Friday was a perfect example: Arizona went 0-for-14 with runners in scoring position, but Pfaadt’s seven shutout innings kept that offensive drought from turning into a loss.
His ERA is now 3.11 over 92 2/3 innings. If he keeps delivering five or six solid innings, Arizona suddenly has another starter it can trust in September. If the early-season version shows back up, the pressure on the pitching staff rises fast.
Marte’s situation is different, and maybe more delicate. The question there is whether his left knee lets him stay on the field.
He left Friday’s win with knee soreness, and manager Torey Lovullo said the issue had been bothering Marte since earlier in August. For now, he’s day to day, and testing is not expected.
That’s a problem because Marte is not easy to replace. He is hitting .251 with 21 home runs, 67 RBI and a .763 OPS in 117 games, and those 21 homers lead the team. He gives Arizona switch-hitting power in the middle of the lineup, and that matters even more when the club is trying to squeeze every run out of a tight race.
Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno give the Diamondbacks other useful bats, but Marte’s value is in what he adds to that group. Arizona has scored 554 runs and allowed 541, so there isn’t much cushion if one of its biggest run producers disappears.
If the knee settles down and he keeps playing, that’s the best-case scenario. If he misses time or looks limited, the Diamondbacks would have to replace both his power and his presence during games that directly affect the Wild Card standings.
Then there’s Gallen, who has the biggest question mark of all.
Arizona put him on the injured list in July with right elbow inflammation and later moved him to the 60-day IL, which makes September 7 his earliest possible return date. He threw a 33-pitch bullpen session Tuesday, which is a step forward, but he still has to get through the rest of his throwing program.
Even getting him back doesn’t guarantee much. Before the injury, Gallen was 3-9 with a 6.34 ERA over 98 innings. He struck out 61 batters and posted a 1.56 WHIP, which tells the story pretty clearly: the Diamondbacks need more than just a healthy body here.
Still, there’s a path to useful value. Gallen could return and give Arizona something meaningful down the stretch, or he could come back and still not be sharp enough to matter.
He might even miss the window entirely. Any of those outcomes would change how the Diamondbacks handle the rotation over the final six weeks.
At the very least, a credible version of Gallen would take some of the burden off Pfaadt and the rest of the staff. At worst, Arizona gets no real boost at all before the biggest games on the calendar.
That’s the thread tying all three players together. Pfaadt has to keep the rotation steady.
Marte has to stay available and productive. Gallen has to become a real September addition.
Arizona’s postseason push will be decided by the whole roster, but these three players sit in spots where the swing matters most. In a race with Philadelphia tied, San Diego just ahead and Miami still within reach, the Diamondbacks don’t need perfection. They need enough from the right people to keep the season from slipping away.
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For a team trying to hang in the playoff chase, the concern goes beyond one missed game. Marte has been central to the offense, and Arizona is now waiting to learn whether the issue is something minor or the kind of injury that could linger into the most important part of the season. [Read more 🡒]
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Carrolls combination of power, speed and gap-to-gap damage has made him a rare threat in every phase of the game, and the pace at which he has reached those benchmarks is a sign of just how special his start has been. For a fan base used to tracking the next wave through prospect lists, Carroll is now the standard-bearer, and the numbers he continues to pile up are starting to put him in a class all his own. [Read more 🡒]