The Diamondbacks are back from the break with a real path to the postseason, but it’s a narrow one and the margin for error is thin. Arizona opens the second half tonight against the Cardinals at Chase Field, sitting at 49-47 and 2 1/2 games behind the Marlins for the National League’s third wild-card spot. The Pirates and Cardinals are also ahead of them, which makes this first series after the break feel especially important.
There’s still plenty of room for movement in the NL race. According to Fangraphs, only five teams - the Rockies, Giants, Mets, Reds and Nationals - are below four percent in playoff odds. Arizona is sitting at 24 percent, which is enough to keep the door open with 66 games left.
This stretch could also shape the front office’s thinking ahead of the August 3 trade deadline, now just over two weeks away. Mike Hazen is under contract through 2028 with a club option for 2029, but this year may wind up being a defining one for him.
The Diamondbacks reached the World Series in 2023, then got club-record payrolls in 2024 and 2025, only to miss the playoffs both times. Their win total also fell from 89 to 80 last year.
Another miss could carry real consequences.
If Arizona is going to make a run, a few things have to go right.
The first-base production has been a problem, even after Tim Tawa’s big day at Dodger Stadium kept the Diamondbacks from owning the worst OPS at the position in MLB history. They’re still stuck with the worst mark in the National League in more than 80 years, at .590.
Tyler Locklear has been called up after batting .313 with Reno over 54 games, but his .897 OPS in the Pacific Coast League doesn’t erase the fact that his major-league results have been underwhelming. He may only be holding the spot until Hazen finds someone better.
The rotation also needs to steady itself fast. Corbin Burnes was supposed to be back for the second half, but that’s off the table.
Instead, Zac Gallen and Michael Soroka are on the injured list, and Arizona has already had to turn to Jose Cabrera, who turned 24 in May, and Mitch Bratt, who turned 23 a couple of weeks ago. Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt have both struggled, and by fWAR the D-backs’ starting staff ranks 27th in the majors, driven in large part by a strikeout rate that sits last in baseball.
Kelly and Pfaadt have looked better in their last couple of outings, and Arizona is going to need that to stick.
Center field hasn’t offered much help either. The Diamondbacks have a .579 OPS there, better than only Cleveland, and the injury to Tommy Troy has thinned the options even more now that he’s on the injured list with Jordan Lawlar.
Jorge Barrosa has already made 65 appearances and is hitting .186, which says plenty about where things stand in the outfield. With Locklear back in the mix, there could be more Tim Tawa in center.
And on the other side of the outfield, Corbin Carroll needs to shake off his recent slump and get back to form.
Arizona’s bullpen has been better overall, with a 4.00 ERA that’s its lowest since 2018. But Paul Sewald has been a strange fit at the back end.
He has 22 saves in 23 chances, yet carries a 4.24 ERA, including a 6.35 mark in 14 non-save appearances. He’s had a knack for turning comfortable leads into one-run nail-biters before finally getting the last out.
The saves are there, but the numbers suggest that kind of ride can’t last forever. Since 2021, among the 41 other closers who had 20 or more saves in the first half, only two posted an ERA of four or higher.
Health may end up deciding the whole thing. Burnes, Justin Martinez and A.J.
Puk are all coming off layoffs of more than a year, so expecting them to instantly return to previous form is a stretch. What Arizona can’t afford is more meaningful injuries.
There isn’t much on the roster that would make a backup feel like a clean replacement for an everyday player. The news that Geraldo Perdomo is getting cortisone injections in his wrist doesn’t help.
But this is a long season, and by the end, everybody is playing through something. The key is simply still being out there.
A one-in-four shot at the playoffs feels about right. It’s roughly twice where Arizona stood on this date in 2025, even if this version of the club has more obvious flaws. Either way, the second half is here, and the Diamondbacks have enough left on the schedule to make things interesting.
In Other News...
Diamondbacks Just Took Another Outfield Hit With Lourdes Gurriel Jr
The Diamondbacks had to reshuffle their roster again after Lourdes Gurriel Jr. landed on the injured list, another reminder of how thin the outfield picture has become. Arizona turned to catcher Adrian Del Castillo to fill the open spot on the active roster, while also making a separate pitching move by adding right-hander Gerardo Carrillo to the 40-man roster before sending him to Triple-A Reno.
For Gurriel, the absence adds another interruption to a season that has already been broken up by health issues, and the timing matters for a club trying to keep its lineup intact. Arizona can absorb the immediate roster hit, but the bigger concern is how long it will have to keep patching together the corners of the roster if these absences continue to stack up. [Read more 🡒]
Diamondbacks 40-Man Picture Just Took Another Unexpected Turn
The Diamondbacks 40-man roster has been anything but static, and the latest transaction log shows just how much churn has been packed into the back half of 2025 and into 2026. Between contract selections from Reno, waiver moves, injured-list shuffling and a steady stream of signings and outright assignments, Arizona has kept reshaping the edges of its roster while trying to stay flexible for whatever comes next.
The most eye-catching moves have come in the middle of all that movement, with the club adding established help while also parting with familiar names in separate deals. For a team that has spent months balancing immediate needs against long-term depth, the real question now is how all of these transactions will settle into the bigger picture, especially with more roster decisions still hanging over the 40-man mix. [Read more 🡒]
Ketel Martes Late-Game Choice Left Diamondbacks Fans Stunned
Shortly after the All-Star break, a tense finish between the Diamondbacks and Cardinals turned on one pitch to Ketel Marte, and the call left plenty of people in Arizona staring at the screen. Marte was ruled out on a 2-2 pitch from St. Louis closer Riley O'Brien, a fastball that appeared to sit above the strike zone on the broadcast strike box and brought the game to an abrupt close.
For the Diamondbacks, the moment carried extra weight because it came in a game that mattered to both clubs, and the late-game decision-making only added to the frustration. Marte did not use a challenge to contest the call, leaving the result to stand and turning what had been a tight, high-leverage sequence into the kind of ending that lingers long after the final out. [Read more 🡒]