Shota Imanaga is heading into free agency after three seasons with the Chicago Cubs, and he’s the kind of pitcher who can split a room fast. Some teams will see a dependable rotation piece. Others will see the home run risk and keep moving.
That’s the tension with Imanaga. The 33-year-old left-hander has shown stretches where he looks flat-out dominant, the kind of arm who can punch out 10 or more batters and then, in the next outing, get tagged for seven runs. The inconsistency label doesn’t quite fit him, but the long ball has a way of wrecking the good work.
What clubs are buying is a low-velocity starter who wins with movement and command. He doesn’t blow hitters away, but he lives in the zone, gets uncomfortable swings, limits walks, and gives teams innings.
The ceiling is debatable. The floor is real.
Imanaga arrived in Chicago in 2024 and immediately looked like one of the best overseas additions of that offseason, posting a 2.91 ERA. His 2025 season wasn’t as sharp, with fewer strikeouts and a dip in already modest velocity.
Last season, though, he looked much closer to his 2024 version: the strikeout rate bounced back, he made 32 starts, and his velocity returned to the same mark it was in 2024. The path changed, though.
He threw his four-seamer less often and leaned more on his split finger and sweeper.
The home run issue never really goes away. He allowed 35 homers with a 16.1% HR/FB rate, and that’s baked into the profile.
At 5-foot-10, with no real extension and only 91 mph to work with, the ball can look like it’s arriving in slow motion. When he’s in the zone that much, some of those pitches are going to leave the yard.
Still, there’s a lot to work with. Imanaga posted a 35% chase rate and a 30% whiff rate, and he’s the type of starter who can give a team six or seven solid innings when things are right.
Of his 32 outings last season, 15 were Quality Starts, and 15 were five innings of one run or less. In 2025, he had 12 quality starts in 25 games, and in 2024 he had 19 in 29 starts.
The ugly starts are the ones that stand out - the five or six a year when he gives up three homers and the line blows up. But if a team can live with that, there’s value here.
Free Agent Profile: Shota Imanaga
Age in 2027: 33
2026 Stats: 174.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 8.98 K/9, 1.91 BB/9
Expected AAV: $15-$21 million
The Diamondbacks make a lot of sense as a landing spot. Their offseason is shaping up to be a strange one, with questions around Ketel Marte, first base, and the rotation.
Corbin Burnes is back in the mix, Eduardo Rodriguez has re-entered the picture, Merrill Kelly is nearing his expiration date, and Brandon Pfaadt is a concern. Imanaga would help stabilize things and could take pressure off Kelly or Pfaadt as a No.
- He could also replace the Zac Gallen innings, which would be a major upgrade.
This feels like the exact tier of pitcher Arizona will be shopping for.
The Padres are another fit, and their rotation situation looks shaky enough to demand action. Joe Musgrove returning from injury comes with obvious questions, and Randy Vasquez, while solid, can’t really be your number two.
San Diego has tried the cheap one-year veteran route before, but this feels like the spot for a higher-end arm like Imanaga. Even if they land someone else, there’s still room for a left-hander who can soak up innings.
The current group is not enough.
Toronto has also been aggressive over the past couple of winters, and the Blue Jays still need more rotation help. They’ve already added Dylan Cease and José Soriano in the past year, and they need a lefty in the mix.
Imanaga would be a clear upgrade over Spencer Arrighetti, and his ability to limit walks would be another bonus for a team that has already poured plenty into its pitching staff. The fit works financially too, since a deal in this range would still leave room to address other needs.
Baltimore is harder to read, but that’s part of what makes the offseason interesting there. The Orioles could go in a few different directions, and starting pitching is clearly on the list of needs.
Trevor Rogers hitting free agency and likely getting a big deal makes a return less likely, even if it’s still possible. If Rogers leaves, Baltimore would be thin on lefties in the rotation outside of Cade Povich, who has dealt with an injury.
Imanaga wouldn’t be a dramatic downgrade, and this is the kind of contract the Orioles should be comfortable with.
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