Jake Bauers’ free agency is starting to look like a real tug-of-war, and one national voice thinks the Milwaukee Brewers may end up watching him walk straight to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Brewers have already put the qualifying offer on the table, which would keep Bauers in Milwaukee on a one-year deal if he takes it. But if he turns it down, the market opens up fast. After a huge 2026 season, Bauers has put himself in position to chase a longer-term payday, and there’s no shortage of belief that he’ll have suitors.
ESPN’s Paul Hembekides was blunt about where he thinks this ends up. On Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney, he pointed to Arizona as the landing spot and laid out a three-year, $54 million deal.
"He's going to land in Arizona at three years and $54 million," Hembekides said about Bauers on Baseball Tonight with Buster Olney. "They have no answer in the short term at first base.
I actually buy into the profile being a bit more sustainable than the public seems to think. I don't think he was merely a product of Milwaukee's genius.
I think he will keep hitting. I think he will do it in Arizona."
That prediction makes sense on paper. Arizona went 86-76 in 2026 and still missed the playoffs, finishing as the first team out. First base is a clear area to watch, and Bauers would fit as a power bat in a lineup that finished 25th in the league with 166 homers.
He would have ranked second on the Diamondbacks in home runs with 26, trailing only Nolan Arenado, who hit 30. That said, there’s a wrinkle here: Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen has already said this offseason that there have been conversations about Arenado moving from third base to first base. If that move happens, it could complicate any pursuit of Bauers.
If Arenado stays put, though, Hembekides’ idea starts to look even cleaner.
For Milwaukee, the hope would be simple: keep Bauers, keep the core intact, and chase another title in 2027. But Bauers’ season changed the math. He went from a role player who was nearly out of the game a few years ago to a player who led a World Series-winning team in home runs, and that kind of jump usually comes with a price tag.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has already said his guess is that Bauers will decline the qualifying offer. And with that kind of buzz building, the sense around the league seems to be drifting toward a departure rather than a return to Milwaukee.
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