The Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen has been a persistent thorn in their side, ranking second worst in baseball since Mike Hazen took charge, only outperforming the Pirates’ shortstop position. As the 2026 season kicked off, the bullpen’s struggles were front and center again.
While Ryan Thompson and Juan Morillo showed promise, Andrew Hoffman barely escaped trouble, and Taylor Clarke faltered, resulting in a collective ERA of 9.00. Not exactly the fresh start fans were hoping for.
This issue has been a familiar refrain for years. The question is, how much has this bullpen actually cost the Diamondbacks?
By examining each season from 2018 to 2025 and comparing the D-backs' actual performance to what they might have achieved with a league-average bullpen, we can see the impact. Using fWAR to separate starting and relief pitching, the results showed some seasons where an average bullpen wouldn’t have changed much.
For instance, in 2021, even with five additional wins, the D-backs would still have ended with a 57-105 record, not enough to escape the league's basement.
In earlier years like 2018, despite a better bullpen, the D-backs would still have missed the playoffs, as the wild-card bar was set high at 91 wins. Fast forward to 2023, and while an average bullpen would have secured a wild-card spot earlier, it wouldn’t have altered their NLCS fate against the Phillies.
The real missed opportunities came in 2024 and 2025. In 2024, the bullpen was just 1.5 wins below average, but those wins could have broken a three-way tie for the last playoff spots, potentially setting up a series against the Padres.
In 2025, a similar scenario unfolded. The Mets snagged a playoff spot with 83 wins, only three more than Arizona.
With a bullpen performing at league average, the D-backs might have clinched that final wild-card spot, replacing the Reds against the Dodgers.
These scenarios highlight that with merely average relief pitching, the Diamondbacks could have made postseason appearances in three straight years-a feat yet to be achieved by the franchise. As the new season unfolds, the hope is that this narrative doesn’t become another annual lament about the bullpen.