The Diamondbacks don’t get much time to catch their breath after splitting with the Padres, slipping below .500 and moving on from a former first round draft pick. Instead, they head straight into a three-game set with the division-leading Dodgers, and the matchup comes with two of the best pitchers in baseball right out of the gate.
For Arizona, this series feels like a stress test. It’s also one of the last chances to make a case that this club ought to be a buyer at the deadline.
Game 1 on 7/10 at 7:10 PM pits Eduardo Rodriguez against Shohei Ohtani. Rodriguez has been making a strong case for the label of this year’s “Best pitcher not named Shohei Ohtani.”
Since the start of May, he has allowed more than two runs only twice, the Diamondbacks have won nine of his twelve starts, and his ERA has dropped into the low twos. The warning sign is the FIP, which sits at 4.00 flat - nearly two runs higher than his ERA.
That points to possible regression, but Arizona is going to keep riding him for as long as this stretch lasts, or until the trade deadline, whichever comes first.
Then there’s Ohtani. He’s Shohei Ohtani, which says most of what needs saying.
He’s an elite hitter and, depending on the year, anywhere from good to very good on the mound. This season, he’s been on the very, very good side of that scale, and that is not the kind of assignment you want when your offense is already slumping.
Game 2 on 7/11 at 6:10 PM brings Brandon Pfaadt against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Pfaadt has looked sharp in his return to the rotation, going at least five innings in both of his first two starts back.
He allowed one run in the first and shut out the Padres in the second. His career has been a roller coaster, but if he’s settling into an upswing now, the timing could hardly be better for Arizona.
The challenge rises steeply, though. His first two opponents were the Giants and Padres, and both of those clubs own the worst offense in baseball.
Yamamoto is a much different problem. He’s been excellent for the Dodgers this year, even if Ohtani has been a little better.
Like Rodriguez, Yamamoto’s FIP is higher than his ERA, though only by about a run. That at least gives the Diamondbacks something to poke at, but it’s still a tall order given where Arizona’s offense has been lately.
Game 3 on 7/12 at 1:10 PM sends Zac Gallen to the mound against Emmet Sheehan. Gallen’s season has been rough enough that one decent four-inning outing after a blown start doesn’t change much. He’s broken, and that’s the read here, regardless of what Bert and Bob may say.
Sheehan is the closest thing to a normal starter in this series, and even that comes with some volatility. Over the past month or so, he’s been all over the place, with outings ranging from one run allowed to six.
The Dodgers have lost four of the last five games he has started, which at least gives Arizona a path. His last two outings were solid, with each going into the fifth and ending with just one run allowed, but both came against the Padres, the worst offense in baseball.
The problem for the Diamondbacks is that they haven’t been much better.
This could turn ugly in a hurry. It would be easy to look at all three games and call them losses before the first pitch, then move on to England vs.
Norway this weekend. A lot of people probably will.
Still, the Gallen game looks like Arizona’s best shot, and that’s more because of Sheehan than Gallen. The other two will take a lot of luck to steal.
In Other News...
Diamondbacks May Be Reaching A Breaking Point At First Base
The Diamondbacks have spent enough time waiting for first base to come around, and the patience there is starting to look costly. Pavin Smith has not given Arizona much offense at the position this season, and the lack of production has become hard to ignore for a team that needs every lineup spot to carry its weight.
Tyler Locklear has pushed his way into the conversation with strong minor league work, including a big July that has made him look like the clearest alternative if Arizona decides a change is overdue. The question now is whether the Diamondbacks want to keep riding with the current setup or give a prospect a real shot before the hole at first base gets any deeper. [Read more 🡒]
Merrill Kelly Gets The Ball As DBacks Make Another Bullpen Call
Merrill Kelly gets the ball for Arizona as the Diamondbacks try to steady themselves against San Diego and keep a four-game set from slipping away. Kelly is coming off a win over the Brewers, his first in five weeks, and the club is hoping he can give the lineup a lift after opening the series with a victory and then dropping the next two.
Arizona also made a roster move to add another bullpen arm while keeping its 40-man roster full, a sign the team is trying to manage the pitching staff carefully as the schedule moves toward the break. With the current rotation alignment not forcing another fifth-starter decision immediately, the Diamondbacks can use the extra arm now and see whether Kelly can help them salvage the finale. [Read more 🡒]
How The WBC Changed Everything For Eduardo Rodriguez In Arizona
Eduardo Rodriguezs spring and summer have carried the kind of momentum Arizona hoped for when it brought him in, and a lot of it traces back to what happened in March with Venezuela. He was effective in the World Baseball Classic, working 4 1/3 scoreless innings as Venezuela pushed all the way to the title, and he came out of that run with a sharper sense of what he wanted to lean on. For a pitcher who has spent years building a reputation as a steady big-league arm, the WBC offered a different sort of stage and, by the looks of his early work since then, a useful boost.
The Diamondbacks have had a close view of Rodriguez for a long time, which made his rise this season feel especially meaningful around the organization. Torey Lovullo and Mike Hazen both know him well, and Lovullo was the one who delivered the news when Rodriguez was named an All-Star, a moment that carried extra weight because of how long their paths have crossed. Arizona has seen plenty of Rodriguezs game over the years, but this version, sharpened by the WBC and rewarded with a first trip to the Midsummer Classic, has given the club another reason to feel good about where his season is headed. [Read more 🡒]