The Padres and Diamondbacks are locked in a tight fight for the National League’s third and final Wild Card spot, but ESPN’s latest prediction gives San Diego the edge.
Jorge Castillo says the separator isn’t just the presence of Mason Miller at the back end. It’s the Padres’ lineup. Castillo and 11 other ESPN MLB experts picked San Diego to finish ahead of Arizona, and they tied that call to the offense holding up enough down the stretch.
“It comes down to the Padres' offense," Castillo writes. "...
The Padres have cooled off, but they boast a strong rotation and an elite bullpen anchored by the best closer in baseball, Mason Miller. They'll beat out Arizona if the offense continues performing to expectations."
San Diego does have some questions in the rotation, but Nick Pivetta is back, and the group has a chance to look strong if it stays healthy. Michael King, Pivetta, Robbie Ray, and Casey Mize form a solid top four on paper.
The bullpen should be a major asset too, especially with Miller pitching the way he has this season. Still, the lineup is where this race could swing.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, and Ty France are the names leading that group. The Padres have been better than the Diamondbacks offensively, even if neither club has exactly been scorching hot.
Over the last 15 days, San Diego ranks 27th in MLB with a .613 OPS. Arizona is right behind at 28th with a .592 OPS.
So while the Padres’ bat-to-ball work hasn’t exactly been loud lately, the ESPN panel still sees them holding off Arizona. If San Diego stays in front, it should be enough to grab that final Wild Card berth.
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Diamondbacks Face A Tough Lineup Test Without Corbin Carroll
The Diamondbacks are taking a different route on Monday, turning to a bullpen game against the Royals in an 11:10 a.m. first pitch as they try to navigate the matchup without Corbin Carroll in the lineup. Derek Law will get the ball as the opener, with Jose Cabrera lined up to handle the bulk innings, a setup that asks Arizona to piece together the afternoon from the start against a Kansas City club ready to post its own lineup.
There is at least one familiar face back in the mix for Arizona, with Geraldo Perdomo returning after what happened in the previous game, adding a little stability to a lineup that will already look different without Carroll resting. The early start and the pitching plan make this a tricky test for the Diamondbacks, and it puts extra pressure on the group to keep the game in reach while the bullpen works through the day. [Read more 🡒]