The Diamondbacks and Padres have spent all season in lockstep, and now they meet one last time with the NL Wild Card picture hanging in the balance.
After splitting two games in Mexico City in April, the clubs split four in San Diego in July and then split four more in Arizona in August. That run led Padres manager Craig Stammen to a simple read on the matchup.
“We've played these guys pretty even all year,” he said. “We'll see them again later in the year in a three-game series. Could be the decider of it all.”
It won’t decide everything now that the Padres have clinched a postseason berth, but the three-game set that starts Friday night at Petco Park still carries plenty of weight - especially for Arizona.
The Diamondbacks enter the series two games behind the Phillies for the final NL Wild Card spot. Philadelphia hosts the Rays over the weekend, and Arizona is done if the Phillies win two games or the Diamondbacks lose two games. The path is narrow, and the margin for error is basically gone.
Arizona is also bringing some life into the series. The Diamondbacks have won five straight, including a sweep of the Rockies at Coors Field, and the clubhouse was loose after Thursday’s win. Music was blaring, and the mood was exactly what you’d expect from a team still trying to force its way into October.
“These boys are having fun,” Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said after the game. “Winning is fun.
That's the main thing. When you win, you have fun.
When you execute and do your job, it's a lot of fun, and I want them to feel very spirited. But at the end of the day, tonight when we get on that plane and start gearing up towards San Diego, we got to turn the page and do the same thing tomorrow.”
For Arizona, the formula is straightforward. Win out and hope the Phillies lose two of three to the Rays. Or take two of three from San Diego and hope Tampa Bay sweeps Philadelphia.
The Padres already have a playoff ticket punched, but they still have something real to play for. They’re 49-29 at Petco Park, and they can still secure home-field advantage for a Wild Card Series. That means they won’t be easing into the weekend.
The pitching plans are set up with October in mind.
Arizona has Brandon Pfaadt, Corbin Burnes and Michael Soroka lined up, though Lovullo has been handling games over the last week like they were already in the postseason. If a starter runs into trouble, he’s quick to the bullpen, so long outings probably won’t be part of the script.
San Diego’s plan is more about preserving weapons. Walker Buehler and Casey Mize are expected to start the first two games, though not necessarily in that order.
Buehler could go Saturday and still be lined up to start the third game of a Wild Card Series. Michael King will not start Sunday; the Padres are holding him back to start Game 1 of the Wild Card Series.
The Diamondbacks’ bullpen has become a real strength, and that’s a change from recent years. Since Paul Sewald was removed from the closer’s role and designated for assignment, Arizona has gone to a matchup-based committee.
The late innings now belong to a group that includes left-hander Brandyn Garcia and right-handers Kevin Ginkel, Jonathan Loaisiga, Juan Morillo and Justin Martinez. Taylor Clarke and Dennis Santana have handled the bridge work well, too.
San Diego’s relief corps has been strong for most of the season, but the bigger shift has come with the bats. The Padres spent much of the first half with the worst offense in baseball.
Since the start of September, though, they’ve been the Majors’ best. Fernando Tatis Jr. is mashing.
Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill are producing. Ty France has looked like the signing of the season, and role players such as Dustin Harris and Samad Taylor have chipped in as well.
Arizona’s biggest question mark remains Burnes. He’s coming off Tommy John surgery and still trying to sharpen his command, so Lovullo figures to have a short leash ready if needed.
The offense is another volatile piece. When the Diamondbacks are rolling, they can pile up runs fast.
When they’re not, they’ve had stretches where driving in runners from scoring position has been a problem.
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