Diamondbacks Are Stuck In A Familiar Spot Fans Dread

As the Diamondbacks face the Padres, their history of near misses and strategic challenges raises questions about their playoff prospects in 2026.

The Diamondbacks and Padres lined up with Jose Cabrera and Michael King on the mound, but the bigger picture in this matchup was Arizona’s strange habit of landing in the exact same spot after 91 games.

The D-backs sit at 45-46, and that is the same mark they carried after 91 games in both 2024 and 2025. The similarity ends there. Neither of those seasons ended with a playoff berth, but the paths they took after that point were wildly different.

In 2024, Arizona caught fire from there, finishing 44-27 and posting the second-best record in the National League over the rest of the schedule. Even that wasn’t enough, because the Mets surged too, going 45-28 and forcing a three-way tie at 89 wins. That set up the infamous double-header against the Braves, with both teams winning the tie-breaker against Arizona.

The 2025 follow-up was much flatter. The Diamondbacks went just 35-36 the rest of the way and finished with 80 wins.

The playoff bar was lower that year, too, with 83 wins enough for the Reds to get in. The Mets were the club that got burned by the tiebreaker that time.

Arizona still had a chance in its penultimate series. The D-backs walked off the Dodgers to reach 80-77, and winning three of their final five games would have gotten them to 83 wins as well, though they had already lost the season series to Cincinnati. Instead, they dropped all five of those games and were eliminated after Friday night’s loss in San Diego.

So the question hanging over 2026 is simple enough: what happens next? The club could buy or sell, and that decision might matter.

Or maybe it won’t. Mike Hazen sold last year, and Arizona still put together a late run that kept things alive into the final week.

In 2024, the team bought A.J. Puk and Josh Bell, sat 2.5 games clear after 140 games, and then went 10-12 the rest of the way to miss out.

For now, the only certainty is this: after matching the same 45-46 record at this point in three straight seasons, the Diamondbacks are due for a different ending.

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