Week 5 gives bettors a full Sunday slate to chew on, and the best angles might come from trusting what the numbers are saying more than what the early record says.
One of the cleaner spots on the board is New England laying 3.5 against Las Vegas. The Raiders have absolutely banked on a strong start and a 3-1 record, and they’ve covered the number every week.
But that kind of run can create a little too much market shine. The lookahead line for this matchup opened with the Patriots as 8.5-point favorites, and now it’s down to 3.5.
That’s a massive move for a four-game sample, and it raises the question of whether the market has gone too far in the Raiders’ direction.
New England’s early results have been uneven, but the defense has still held up. The Patriots are eighth in opponent success rate, and that’s a better mark than the Raiders, who sit 11th in the same category.
The bigger issue for Las Vegas is on the ground. The Raiders rank 29th in rush EPA and 30th in rush success rate, which puts a lot of pressure on Kirk Cousins to carry the offense with his arm.
He’s done enough early, but there’s reason to wonder how sustainable that is.
The Vikings are another team that’s been winning games without making life easy on themselves, and the underlying numbers don’t flatter them. Their offense has been rough, ranking 28th in EPA per play and last in the NFL in success rate.
The defense has done the heavy lifting, but that kind of formula only takes you so far. This week they’re on the road against a Saints team that at least has some ability to move the ball through the air.
If you want the cleanest scoring angle, look no further than Cardinals-Lions. Detroit has become the kind of team that makes overs feel automatic. The Lions are sixth in EPA per play and third in success rate on offense, but their defense is giving it right back, sitting last in opponent EPA per play and 29th in opponent success rate.
Arizona has its own version of that profile. The Cardinals are in the top half of the league in most offensive categories, while landing in the bottom half in most defensive ones. That fits the construction of the roster, and it sets this NFC matchup up nicely for points.
Sit back and root for offense in this one.
In Other News...
Marvin Harrison Trade Timing Leaves Cardinals Fans With One Big Question
The Marvin Harrison move has already become one of those deals Cardinals fans are left to sort through after the fact. Reportedly sent from Arizona to the Houston Texans, the trade was believed to have been finalized before Sundays games, even though it did not become public until afterward, and Texans coach DeMeco Ryans ended up confirming it in a postgame press conference.
For Cardinals observers, the timing is what stands out almost as much as the transaction itself. Harrison still has to pass a physical before anything is official, which leaves one lingering piece of uncertainty in a situation that already felt unusual from the start. [Read more 🡒]
Cardinals Had A Few Bright Spots In A Loss That Exposed Too Much
The opening series offered Arizona a quick jolt and a reminder of what the offense can look like when it gets out ahead of the chains, but the good feelings faded fast from there. Even in a lopsided loss to Detroit, there were a few individual bright spots for the Cardinals, with Kendrick Bourne, Trey McBride and Budda Baker standing out on a day when the team needed steady playmakers wherever it could find them.
What made the defeat sting beyond the final margin was how many problems it exposed on the other side of the ball. Arizona had real trouble matching up in the middle of the field and finished with tackling issues that kept drives alive, a costly combination against an opponent built to punish mistakes. For a defense already searching for answers, the film will not be easy to sit through, especially with so much of the damage coming in ways the Cardinals could not seem to fix in real time. [Read more 🡒]
Cardinals Suddenly Face A Trade Deadline Path Fans Wont Like
The early-season slide has already pushed Arizona into an uncomfortable conversation as the NFL trade deadline nears, and Adam Schefters latest read only sharpens it. In his view, the Cardinals belong in the same bucket as the Dolphins, Chargers and Titans as teams that could end up moving players rather than chasing help, a sign of how quickly a rough start can alter a franchises direction.
Arizona has already shown a willingness to reshape the roster, too, after dealing Marvin Harrison Jr. to Houston. With the Nov. 10 deadline approaching, the question around the Cardinals is no longer whether they need to be aggressive, but whether that aggression turns into selling off more than fans would want to see. [Read more 🡒]