Week 8 brings a fresh batch of H-bomb big underdog spots, and the early-season numbers have kept this angle very much alive. Through seven weeks, teams getting at least 6.5 points have covered in 19 of 28 games, a 67.9 percent hit rate. Two of those games ended in ties, and 10 of the 19 covers were outright wins.
Last week added another strong showing for the underdogs, with a 2-1 record. The New York Giants were the headline result, cashing as 10.5-point dogs and beating the Houston Texans outright. That was also the fourth straight cover for double-digit underdogs after two losses, with two of those four turning into direct hits.
The Giants result mattered in the weekly standings, too. Because that was my pick, I moved to 5-2 on the season with three direct hits.
Jess Root slipped to 4-3 after the Las Vegas Raiders failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams. The other cover last week came from the Indianapolis Colts against the Minnesota Vikings.
This week’s board has five eligible games:
Jacksonville Jaguars (-10) at home vs. Indianapolis Colts
Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5) at home vs. Tennessee Titans
Dallas Cowboys (-7) at home vs. Arizona Cardinals
L.A. Rams (-6.5) at home vs.
L.A. Chargers
New England Patriots (-7) on the road vs. Miami Dolphins
For me, the Cardinals are the clear play. I’ve already had three wins picking Arizona in H-bomb spots, including two outright hits against the Chargers and Rams. All three of those victories came on the road, with the other coming against the San Francisco.
The matchup history backs that lean, too. The Cardinals have won eight of their last nine games against the Cowboys, including four straight on the road. There’s also a scheduling wrinkle here: Arizona’s Week 6 win over the Rams came after L.A. had played on Monday Night Football, and the Cowboys are coming off their own Monday night road game.
Jess is taking a different route and feels good about the Dolphins after they picked up their first win of the season last week against the New York Jets.
H-bomb big underdog standings
Direct hit record (outright win) in parentheses
Howard 5-2 (3)
Jess 4-3 (0)
Overall 19-9-3 (10)
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Jeremiyah Love has flashed enough to remind everyone why he was such a tempting pick, but the larger question around him is less about talent than value. A back taken that high has to change the math for a roster, and every week he misses only sharpens the debate over whether Arizona would be better off with the kind of impact player it passed on in the spring. [Read more 🡒]