Week 6 is bringing a short slate of H-bomb chances, and the underdogs have already made this angle pay off. Through 23 games with spreads of 6.5 points or more, the dog has covered 14 times and pulled the outright upset seven times.
That trend has helped shape the first month and change of the season. Double-digit favorites have been a mixed bag through five weeks, cashing twice in four games: the San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) against the Miami Dolphins in Week 2 and the Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) against the Dolphins in Week 3.
Week 4 was a better one for the dogs. Miami (+10.5) covered in a loss to the Minnesota Vikings, and the Tennessee Titans (+11.5) did the same in a loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Jess Root and I split that week, with Jess hitting on Baltimore and mine landing on Minnesota.
Week 5 flipped things back. Jess got even with the Philadelphia Eagles (+8) covering against the Jacksonville Jaguars, while I took a hit with the Titans (+7.5) getting rolled by the Houston Texans, 26-3.
Now the Week 6 board is set, and there are five eligible games with one double-digit spread. Every favorite is at home, and Tennessee qualifies as an H-bomb underdog for the fourth time in six weeks, matching Miami.
Here’s the Week 6 list of big underdog games:
New England Patriots (-7) at home vs. N.Y. Jets
Indianapolis Colts (-7) at home vs. Tennessee Titans
L.A. Rams (-12.5) at home vs. Arizona Cardinals
Kansas City Chiefs (-8) at home vs. L.A. Chargers
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at home vs. Washington Commanders
Jess is backing the Commanders after their awful tie against the N.Y. Giants. The biggest surprise on the board is probably that the 5-0 49ers are only 7.5-point favorites.
I’m taking a different route and going back to the Cardinals, even after their 45-21 loss to the Detroit Lions last week. Arizona has already come through for me twice: as a 9.5-point underdog in Week 1 against the L.A. Chargers, and as an 8.5-point underdog in Week 3 against the 49ers.
Both of those Cardinals covers came on the road, and this week’s matchup comes away from home again, in the same stadium where they played the Chargers. This time the opponent is the Rams, who are laying 12.5.
Will the pattern hold again? Plenty of people would be stunned if it does.
In Other News...
Cardinals Fans Have Every Reason To Debate This NFL Punishment
The NFL added another point of frustration for a Cardinals team trying to find its footing, fining tight end Elijah Higgins for unnecessary use of the helmet on a play last week. It was a hefty penalty, and one that stood out in a week when the league handed out 23 fines across the NFL. Higgins has been a modest but useful part of Arizonas passing game through the first five weeks, with eight catches for 96 yards and a touchdown.
For Cardinals fans, the debate is less about the dollars and more about where the line gets drawn on contact in a physical league. Higgins fine ranked among the largest in that weeks batch of punishments, which only makes the scrutiny sharper for a player who is still carving out his role in the offense. It leaves Arizona with yet another reminder that even routine-looking plays can carry real consequences long after the whistle blows. [Read more 🡒]
Cardinals Face A Bigger Week 6 Problem Than Just The Rams
The Cardinals have spent the build-up to Week 6 shuffling their roster and trying to keep enough bodies available for a trip to SoFi Stadium, where theyll face the Rams while carrying a four-game losing streak. Several players have already been ruled out or listed as questionable, and the uncertainty has added another layer to a week that already feels pivotal for Arizona as it tries to steady itself and get back on track.
Mike LaFleur said the team is handling those calls on a game-by-game basis, with the focus squarely on putting the best possible group on the field Sunday rather than reacting with sweeping changes. Budda Baker remains one of the more notable names in that mix, while Zaven Collins and Blake Gillikin also did not get the kind of weekend bump the Cardinals were hoping for, leaving Arizona with a few lingering questions as kickoff approaches. [Read more 🡒]
Cardinals Fans Know What Makes This Rams Matchup Feel Different
The Week 6 meeting with the Rams carries a little extra edge for the Cardinals, even if both sideline leaders are trying to keep the spotlight on the matchup itself. Arizona head coach Mike LaFleur is preparing to see Sean McVay from the other side for the first time since working on his staff, which adds a layer of familiarity to a game that already has plenty of familiarity built in.
For Cardinals fans, though, the bigger backdrop is the recent history in this rivalry. Los Angeles has owned the series for years, and Arizona has spent plenty of Sundays trying to flip that script. With LaFleur now leading the Cardinals and McVay still setting the tone in Los Angeles, this one feels a little more personal than your usual NFC West game. [Read more 🡒]