Happy Saturday one and all.
Ahead of the Arizona Cardinals’ matchup with the Detroit Lions, Ryan Mathews of Pride of Detroit weighed in on where things stand in Detroit after four games, and the picture is a mixed one.
The Lions’ offense has started to find its rhythm, even if the full breakout hasn’t quite arrived yet. Outside of the familiar “Lions miss Ben Johnson” jokes, the unit has gotten better every week.
Detroit is fifth in points per game at 29.8, sixth in yards per game at 389.3, and seventh in EPA/play at +0.10. The opener against the New Orleans Saints was uneven, but the Lions still cashed in on a pair of turnovers and turned short fields into touchdowns.
They then scored 31 points in three straight games before last week’s trip to the Carolina Panthers, when the offense bogged down in the red zone and settled for field goals instead of touchdowns. That was a departure from what had come before.
Entering Week 4, Detroit had converted 78.6% of its red zone chances, which ranked sixth in the NFL.
Even with the production, Mathews still sees another gear out there. The missing piece, in his view, is the explosion plays.
It hasn’t been for lack of trying. Some of the missed chances have come from drops, some from off-target throws, and some from protection breaking down.
Once Detroit starts hitting more deep shots or popping bigger runs, the offense should look like the kind of dangerous group it was expected to be.
The defense, though, is a different story entirely.
Trying to explain how Detroit has been this shaky through four weeks is, in Mathews’ words, a tough exercise. The front has been strong. Alim McNeill leads interior defenders with 20 pressures, Aidan Hutchinson is tied for first among edge defenders with 29 pressures, and Tyleik Williams has done a good job against the run in his second season out of Ohio State.
But the back seven has been a mess. Detroit is allowing 109.3 net passing yards per game when it gets pressure, which is worst in the NFL.
The next-worst team, the Atlanta Falcons, are allowing just 65.3 in that split. That gap says plenty.
Last week’s problems against Carolina were especially ugly. The Panthers used RPOs to keep the Lions on their heels, with Bryce Young reading the blitz and getting the ball to the space Detroit had just vacated.
The cornerbacks are playing off coverage a lot, which is not how things worked under Aaron Glenn, and it looks odd considering how often the front is getting after the quarterback. Detroit’s pressure rate is 39.3%, which ranks ninth in the league.
Personnel is part of the issue - the Lions were in on the Joey Porter Jr. sweepstakes - but Mathews also pointed to veteran safety Chuck Clark being asked to do things he may no longer be able to do. Dan Campbell has said there’s still more tinkering available, but Mathews isn’t sold.
That leads to the obvious next question: can Arizona’s defense, which has struggled badly, help Detroit finally crack 40 points?
Mathews thinks that would require the Lions to start landing those explosive plays that have been missing so far. Arizona has been excellent against the run, ranking second in EPA/rush at -0.24, and its stuff rate of 17.0% is tied for 13th.
If Detroit wants a big number in the desert, the ground game has to be steady from the opening whistle. That keeps the offense on schedule and ahead of the sticks, where it usually operates best.
And with Detroit’s defense in its current state, long drives matter even more because they keep the Lions’ own defense on the sideline.
As for Campbell’s job security, Mathews didn’t see that as a real issue at all.
Detroit went 15-2 two seasons ago, slipped to 9-8 last year, and has opened this season slowly, but that doesn’t change the bigger picture. Campbell’s status, Mathews said, won’t really be a conversation until the season plays out.
Record, playoff result and the rest of the year will shape that discussion. It would take a very bad finish for his job to even come into question.
The betting angle points to a high-scoring game, too. Arizona is not covering the 4.5-point line, at least in Mathews’ view, and he also leaned toward the over on 53.5.
He joked, “Drew Petzing revenge game incoming?” before making the larger point: there’s little reason to think this Lions defense can keep anyone under 21 points right now.
Campbell has also been blunt this week about the offense not settling for “mediocrity,” saying the group has too much talent not to chase greatness. That leaves room for Detroit to put together a big night.
Still, with the way the defense has looked in 14 of its past 16 quarters, Mathews expects it to stay tight. His read: a one-score game when it’s over.
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