Two offer sheets are hanging over the offseason right now, and both force front offices into uncomfortable math. Utah Mammoth center Barrett Hayton has one from the New Jersey Devils, while Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson is staring at a massive one from the Philadelphia Flyers that would make him the highest-paid player in the NHL at an $18 million AAV for five years.
The deadlines are closing in, too. Utah has until Wednesday, July 8, to decide on Hayton.
Anaheim gets until Friday, July 10, on Carlsson. And the real question is simple enough: do either of these teams match, or do they take the draft compensation and move on?
Hayton’s case looks cleaner at first glance, but it gets complicated fast. The Devils’ offer is worth $4.775 million on a one-year deal, and because Hayton is 26, he’s only a year away from unrestricted free agency. That creates the poison pill element here: if the Mammoth match, they can’t trade him for a year, which would basically carry him right to UFA status next summer.
The return for letting him go would be a 2027 second-round pick. Cam Robinson of Elite Prospects reported that the Devils and Mammoth were close to a Hayton trade at the draft before Utah pulled out at the last minute, which adds another layer to the decision. If the Mammoth were already weighing a move, matching the offer sheet may not make much sense.
Their roster also points in that direction. After acquiring Vincent Trocheck from the New York Rangers, Utah’s center group includes Nick Schmaltz, Logan Cooley, and Trocheck, with Kevin Stenlund in a fourth-line role and Jack McBain also able to play down the middle. The cap room is there - with Hayton’s $4.775 million hit, they still have about $4.58 million in space - but the fit is the issue.
There’s also the possibility that Hayton simply wants a change. The Devils aren’t throwing superstar money at him, so this isn’t a case where the contract itself screams “take the bag.”
At that number, he’s basically being paid around market value. That makes the offer sheet feel less like a pure financial play and more like a player looking for a different situation.
If that’s the case, Utah may be better off taking the second-round pick and moving on.
Carlsson’s situation is a different beast entirely.
Elliotte Friedman reported that the Ducks had kept things quiet this offseason in part to prepare for a possible offer sheet on Carlsson. Even so, it’s hard to believe they expected anything this extreme. The Flyers came in with a deal that would put Carlsson at the top of the NHL salary ladder, and now Anaheim has to decide whether to swallow that number or accept four first-round picks.
That compensation is the key piece of the puzzle. Four first-rounders sounds like a haul, but it only matters if those picks turn into something special. And if the Flyers are good enough to make those selections land in the middle or back half of the first round, the Ducks may not be getting the kind of player who changes a franchise.
Carlsson is 21, already a first-line center, and still has room to grow. But $18 million a year is superstar territory, and he isn’t there yet.
That kind of money is usually reserved for the Connor McDavids of the world, the players who live in the Hart Trophy conversation year after year. Carlsson may be excellent.
He may become even better. But that price tag is another level.
Still, Anaheim would be hard-pressed to replace him. The Ducks could use those future firsts to try to find another top center, but that’s a gamble.
They could also package some of that draft capital for help elsewhere, though a player like Dylan Larkin would still not be Carlsson, and the age gap between the two is nearly 10 years. That matters for a team whose contention window is just starting to open.
That’s why the Ducks probably have to match, even if it leaves them in a rough cap position. Pat Verbeek says that’s the plan, and it’s easy to see why. Letting Carlsson walk would create a short-term reset, but Anaheim would also be giving up a player they’re unlikely to replace with draft picks alone.
The problem is that the Ducks have already made their cap life more difficult. They had to overpay Pavel Mintyukov, who also looked like a possible offer-sheet target, and now they still need room to re-sign Cutter Gauthier, another RFA who could command an eight-figure AAV. Matching Carlsson would tighten everything even more, but it may still be the least damaging option.
So both teams are staring at bad choices, just not equally bad ones. For Utah, the Hayton decision feels like it could tilt toward the second-round pick.
For Anaheim, the four first-rounders probably don’t outweigh the risk of losing Carlsson. Either way, the next few days should tell us a lot about how these front offices see their futures.
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