As the NHL salary cap keeps climbing, teams are acting like the money will never stop flowing. But the cap still bites, and a few recent deals already look like the kind that can haunt a front office later.
The biggest problem with some of these contracts isn’t always the annual salary. It’s the combination of price, term, and risk - and several clubs have leaned hard into all three.
Jacob Trouba’s four-year, $8.3 million AAV deal with the San Jose Sharks stands out as a clear overpay. There’s value in adding a veteran voice to a young room, and that part makes sense for San Jose.
The issue is the cost. Trouba was not strong enough defensively to justify that kind of raise, especially for the next four seasons.
Alex Tuch’s eight-year, $10.5 million AAV contract with the Washington Capitals lands in a different bucket, but it carries its own danger. Tuch should bring a strong presence, yet the length of the deal is what makes it uneasy, especially with him already in his 30s. Washington is trying to build a strong team now, but the question is how many of those eight years will truly match the price tag.
Bowen Byram’s six-year, $12.5 million AAV extension with the Chicago Blackhawks is the kind of swing that can look brilliant or reckless depending on how it plays out. Chicago made a major move to get him and immediately wanted him locked up.
Byram has had injury concerns in the past, which makes this a real gamble. The Blackhawks are paying him like their number one defenseman, and if he can help Connor Bedard and push the team toward a playoff run, the deal may age better than it looks right now.
Leo Carlsson’s five-year, $18 million AAV contract with the Anaheim Ducks is another expensive bet on upside. The Flyers tried to pry him away, which put Anaheim in a tough spot: pay the star or risk losing him to Philly.
The deal also complicates the Ducks’ future business. It makes it harder to navigate other negotiations, including Cutter Gauthier, who now has reason to point to Carlsson’s payday and ask for one of his own.
Trent Fredric’s eight-year, $3.85 million AAV deal with the Edmonton Oilers rounds out the list, and the concern here is all about term. The money per year is manageable, but eight years is a long commitment for a player projected to be a fourth-line winger. Fredric is mainly a bottom-six forward, and locking him in that long feels like a move that could become restrictive down the line.
That’s the reality NHL teams are facing as the cap rises: bigger numbers, longer commitments, and more chances to get stuck. The challenge now is deciding whether to bet on the long haul or keep flexibility for the stars who really shape a roster.
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