Welcome to Week 10 of the 2026 college football season, and the upset board is loaded again.
Last week, the underdog calls came through in a big way. South Carolina, Iowa State and USC all cashed, and now the goal is to keep that run rolling with another batch of live dogs.
The biggest swing on the slate is Alabama over LSU. There’s just not much reason to be sold on LSU at this point.
The Tigers have piled up points on overmatched opponents, but they still haven’t really taken down anybody of consequence. Their best win may be last week’s 38-17 result against Auburn, and even the Clemson and Texas A&M wins have aged badly.
Now LSU is laying it against an Alabama team that should be healthier coming out of its bye. The way the market is treating LSU suggests it’s one of the nation’s elite teams, and this week should tell us whether that price is real.
Pick: Alabama to win (33% on Kalshi)
Miami over Notre Dame is another spot that stands out. The concern here is Notre Dame’s ability to generate explosive plays against the Canes.
The Irish have been efficient enough on offense for much of the year, but that has come with them avoiding long-yardage situations. That changed in their lone loss to BYU, when they had seven 3rd-and-long reps, and the same issue could show up again this week if early downs get sticky.
Miami’s offense has taken a hit with Malachi Toney out, but the market may be overdoing that adjustment. The Canes still have enough talent to handle the loss.
West Virginia over Texas Tech is the long-shot play, but it comes with a real case. The Mountaineers’ offense has been explosive all season, sitting in the 99th percentile in explosive play rate.
Texas Tech’s defense is solid, but it has been more vulnerable this year with 2025 standouts David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez now in the NFL. Per Game on Paper, the Red Raiders are in the 49th percentile in explosive pass plays allowed.
Texas Tech has the better overall roster, but West Virginia’s offensive profile is unusual enough to make this interesting, especially if the Red Raiders’ offense stalls again. WVU also gets the edge of coming off a bye, while Texas Tech is on its fourth straight game.
Vanderbilt over Mississippi State is mostly a fade of a Bulldogs team that has struggled badly without a healthy Kamario Taylor. Mississippi State has posted negative EPA-per-play numbers in four straight games, and the defense hasn’t offered much help either.
Even Oklahoma was averaging almost 7 yards per play in Starkville a couple of weeks ago. Vanderbilt’s season has been uneven, but the offense can still hit explosive plays, particularly through the air.
That gives the Commodores a real shot here.
Oregon over Ohio State rounds out the list, even if it’s not the showdown anyone expected back in August. Oregon is probably out of the CFP picture, and Dante Moore is done for the year.
Julian Sayin might be, too. Still, the Ducks flashed something last week against Northwestern, especially in a dominant second half, and they look like a different offense when their top wide receivers are healthy.
Ohio State, meanwhile, still doesn’t look settled without Sayin under center. With that quarterback situation hanging over the Buckeyes, this game looks a lot closer than the market suggests.
In Other News...
Alabama Heads To LSU With One Big Availability Question
With the Southeastern Conference now requiring injury reports for football, basketball and baseball conference games starting in 2024, Alabamas weekly availability picture has become part of the conversation as much as the matchup itself. Heading into its seventh SEC game of the 2026 season against LSU, the Crimson Tide is still sorting through a roster that has been hit by injuries, even as head coach Kalen DeBoer said several previously sidelined players are making progress in their recoveries.
There is still no shortage of uncertainty around the depth chart, though, and Alabama is carrying some season-ending absences into this stretch, including Jeremiah Beaman and Cayden Jones. For a team entering one of the SECs biggest rivalry games, the question is less about who is already ruled out and more about which of the recovering players can actually make it back in time to matter against LSU. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama Heads Into LSU Week With One Big Availability Problem
Alabamas first availability report for LSU week brought a familiar kind of late-season concern, with five starters and one key running back listed as questionable because of injuries. There is some optimism around several of those names, including Ryan Coleman-Williams, Terrance Green and Racin Delgatty, but the list also leaves room for real uncertainty as the Crimson Tide work through the week.
Zabien Brown, Will Sanders and EJ Crowell are among the players whose status remains less clear, and that is where the issue starts to matter beyond just the injury report itself. How much depth Alabama has to lean on, and how effective it can be if a few of those pieces are limited or unavailable, could shape the way this matchup with LSU unfolds. [Read more 🡒]
Alabama Faces A Brutal LSU Warning Ahead Of Playoff Test
The buildup to Alabamas next test has turned into a warning label, and Joel Klatt is not sugarcoating it. In previewing the matchup with LSU, the Fox Sports analyst pointed to the Tigers pass rush and overall defensive play as the kind of pressure that can expose some of Alabamas recent issues on the ground, a concern that matters even more with the playoff picture tightening.
Klatt also leaned into LSUs recent momentum at quarterback, noting Sam Leavitts strong play, while the injury situation for both teams adds another layer to a game that already feels like a measuring stick. He went as far as to pick LSU to win, projecting a 30-17 final, which only sharpens the stakes for Alabama as it heads into a matchup where the margin for error looks thin. [Read more 🡒]